From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
TIPS versus Treasuries is one of the most important charts we’re watching right now, as it's hitting its highest level since early 2013. Relative strength from TIPS hints that investors are positioning themselves for a sustained surge in inflation.
This makes sense given both the five- and 10-year breakeven inflation rates have reached their highest levels in more than a decade.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Last week, we touched on the weakness that’s been developing further out on the yield curve.
The long end simply hasn’t kept pace with shorter-term yields. This is understandable given the magnitude of the move in the 30-year since summer 2020. At some point, the shorter end of the curve needs to play catch up. And it’s done just that these past couple months.
Now it’s time to focus on longer-term rates, as further downside pressure will eventually put the current economic recovery into question.
Let’s put the recent action in rates into perspective as we head into year’s end.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
We’ve been pounding the table about rising rates for over a month now.
It’s hard not to when they're rising across the curve in both the US and abroad. Cyclical and value-oriented assets have increased in tandem, as energy and financials have become leadership groups.
We continue to see countries with heavy exposure to financials emerging from multi-decade bases. Just last month, the Euro Stoxx 600 made new all-time closing highs, while Italian equities reached their highest levels in 13 years.
But when we look further out on the curve, the long end hasn’t been keeping pace with shorter duration yields in recent weeks.
Taking a look at the 30-year beside the 10- and 5-year yields tells this story best.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
Long-term interest rates have taken a hit this week, while the short end of the curve has continued higher. When we zoom out a bit, yields have been rising across the curve since this summer.
During the past few months, the 2-year yield has ticked higher by more than 30 basis points (bps), the 5-year has increased by almost 60 bps, and the 10-year has gained 40 bps. But when we look all the way out to the 30-year, it's only risen by roughly 20 basis points.
Rates are rallying across the board, Treasuries are trending lower, and bond market investors are favoring TIPS and higher-yielding securities.
Well, we definitely don’t want to be buying Treasury bonds.
In today’s post, we’re going to take a trip around the fixed-income market and discuss some US Treasury funds we can use as vehicles to express our thesis.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
It’s no secret.
As investors, we've been rewarded for buying stocks and commodities over bonds for more than a year now. And this will most likely remain the case, as more evidence suggests we’re in an environment that favors risk assets.
The copper/gold ratio hitting new seven-year highs, AUD/JPY testing its year-to-date highs, and cyclical stocks assuming leadership all point to an increasingly risk-on tone.
But for some of us, it’s not as simple as selling bonds and walking away. In some scenarios, we must have exposure to the bond market.
If that’s the case, we want to focus on the riskier areas of the market, just like we’re doing with other asset classes.
Let’s look at a few charts that direct our attention to the strongest areas of the bond market.
As we progress into Q3 of Fiscal Year 2021-2022, this playbook outlines our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit.
This playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates, as well as outline our views on the major nifty indices and the sector/thematic indices.
We also cover individual stocks we want to be buying to take advantage of the themes discussed in the playbook.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
We’re beginning to see signs that risk-on behavior is re-entering the market.
Commodities are ripping in the face of a rising dollar.
Cyclical stocks are back in gear as the S&P 500 High Beta ETF $SPHB posts higher highs and higher lows relative to its low-volatility alternative $SPLV.
Meanwhile, classic risk-appetite barometer AUD/JPY sliced through a critical level of former support-turned-resistance earlier this week.
All of these point to an increasing risk-on environment.
But what does the bond market have to say about investor positioning toward risk?
Let’s look at a couple credit spreads that speak to investors’ willingness to incur risk.
One thing unique about the market is that the game is never over. There aren't four 15-min quarters or two 20-min halves like in sports.
In those endeavors there is a beginning and an end.
You know who won (or who tied in some cases). But the match is over, and there will be another one in a few days or a few months, depending on the sport.
In the market, it never ends. This can cause issues psychologically, so it's something we should all be aware of and keep in mind.
But if you ask me, currently the bulls are scoring a lot more points. This is the first time we've seen that since Q1 this year, when the bears started running up the score.
Look at the S&P500 break out to new all-time highs relative to US Treasury Bonds.