Are you wondering whether this correction in the stock market can turn into something much more severe?
I certainly am.
As thrilled as we are to see some of these Tech and Growth stocks get hammered, the question is whether this aggressive selling will spill into other more value-oriented areas.
There are 3 main charts that we have on our radar.
The first one is in credit. If we're entering into a new bear market, or an aggressive period of high volatility, you are likely to see that stress in the bond market. If Treasuries begin to outperform High yield, it's evidence of that stress.
The next one is in High Beta vs Low Volatility stocks. This ratio tends to move very closely with the averages. If you start to see a bid in Low Volatility stocks relative to High Beta, then this correction is likely to be more severe.
And finally the Consumer Discretionary vs Staples. Similar to the High Beta / Low Vol ratio, this tends to signal rotation into more defensive areas of the market.
Remember in the back half of last year, when virtually everything was working EXCEPT for Tech stocks?
Well a funny thing happened early in 2023, money rotated into Tech and other Large-cap Growth.
These Tech stocks did so well, that people who are bad at math convinced themselves, and others around them, that it was only 5 or 7 stocks going up.
That was hilarious.
And while it definitely wasn't just 7 stocks, but thousands of stocks ripping in your face all year, Technology was certainly the leader along the way, particularly on a market-cap weighted basis.
But that relative strength has been rolling over the past few months as momentum has also diverged negatively.
And then in early January, they got the rotation they were looking for, and it became Tech and Growth as the leaders of this Bull Market.
Now that we're in Month #14 of this Bull Market regime, and we've seen several cycles of rotation already, I think it's time for another one.
First of all, take a look at the Nasdaq100 $QQQ currently running into former resistance from late 2021, that preceded the failed breakout and ensuing collapse:
Monday night, we held our July Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize the call by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
It's hard for me to have a conversation about the stock market without bringing up what's happening in bonds.
Think about it like this, the market cap of all US Stocks is somewhere around $40 Trillion. For the bond market it's over $120 Trillion.
Volatility in bonds tends to trickle down to other asset classes, especially stocks.
US Stocks really got going in the 4th quarter last year, once the US 10-year Note stopped falling in price.
I don't believe that was a coincidence.
But at this point, Large Speculators have on their most aggressive short position in bonds ever.
So in other words, what is historically the "dumb money", particularly at turning points, are betting more aggressively than ever that bond prices are going to fall and rates will now continue higher: