The new all-time highs in the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 earlier this month have been well documented.
What they don't tell you is that the equally-weighted versions of those market-cap weighted indexes are just now getting back to their late 2021 highs.
They never even broke out. In fact, they're finally just getting back to where they started.
The only real safe haven out there continues to be the US Dollar.
That's it.
When money flows into the Dollar, stocks are under pressure. You may not always see it at the index level, but you can certainly see it when you count and go one by one across the stock market.
The US Dollar bottomed on December 27th. That was also the day that the Advance-Decline line on the NYSE put in its top. It was also the day that the Russell2000 Small-cap Index peaked.
We held our February Monthly Strategy Session last week. ASC Premium Members can click here to watch the replay and download the chartbook.
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.
This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
As we exit the best three-month period for the stock market, we're looking to our risk appetite indicators to help us determine the next directional move.
The charts below are all excellent tools for helping identify what kind of environment we are in.
During bull markets, investors embrace risk. In bear markets, they reduce their risk.
Understanding and analyzing the balance between defensive and offensive assets helps keep us on the right side of the trend.
Another day goes by in the market, and more selling came in.
Investors are making a habit of this whole selling thing.
You notice?
In yesterday's trading we saw the fewest amount of stocks in longer-term uptrends since mid-December. We also had the fewest stocks in short-term uptrends since mid-November.
You may not see the selling pressure as much at the index level, but for those of you who actually take the time to count what the stocks themselves are doing, you know.
Take a look at the new highs list, essentially non-existent throughout the month of January, even with the S&P500 and Dow hitting the highest levels ever.
You can also see the divergences in Consumer stocks, Small-caps and Emerging Markets currencies:
Let me remind everyone what a bad idea it is to sell naked calls.
We don't do it.
I often want to do it.
Many times, it makes sense to do it.
But the answer is always no.
It's just not worth it.
Go ask around. The old timers will tell you.
"Don't do it kid"
But that doesn't mean that as a philosophy, we shouldn't approach the market with that sort of "naked call selling" mentality, at least for the foreseeable future.