The US dollar and interest rates are still two of the most important charts out there. You’re probably tired of hearing it, but their future direction impacts the entire marketplace.
And, believe it or not, the currency market provides a great read on both.
Bullish data points continue to roll in left and right, supporting dollar strength. From the Korean won and Singaporean dollar to the euro and the pound, the dollar seems to break out against another currency every few days.
When we evaluate the trends in emerging market commodity currencies, it reveals insight into the recent rise in interest rates. Instead of showing strength, these currencies are catching lower -- which doesn’t jibe with a rising rate environment.
It’s inescapable. If you haven’t read it in the news, seen it on Twitter, or heard it from a co-worker, here’s the scoop…
The euro has tumbled to parity with the dollar for the first time in almost 20 years!
That’s the big news in the currency markets these days. Sure, it’s a significant development.
But what currency isn’t falling against the US dollar right now?
It’s an interesting question. And it draws our attention to the Canadian dollar.
Let’s take a look.
Here’s a chart of the USD/CAD cross:
While the US dollar steamrolls everything in sight and prints fresh decade-highs against most major currencies, it’s still dealing with last year’s highs against the Canadian dollar.
Yes, these crosses have been trending lower since the beginning of the year. But with the critical levels that broke yesterday, we're anticipating fresh downside legs and prolonged dollar dominance.
In almost every market environment, there are assets we want to buy and assets we want to sell. That holds even when we think the only option is to sell.
Recently, the strong buys have been in commodities and cyclical areas of the market, while bonds and the major stock indexes have sold off. That's dramatically changed in recent weeks, though.
Now, all the major asset classes – bonds, stocks, and commodities – are under pressure, as bears come for the leadership groups. It seems nothing is immune to bearish price action these days.
Despite the broad selling pressure, there's still an asset we want to buy: the US dollar. That’s right, the good old greenback! It’s one thing the bears can’t seem to crack.
If we think about it from an intermarket perspective, a defensive bid for dollars makes sense given the downside pressure on risk assets across the board. We don’t think it’s a coincidence.
Regardless, the USD is strong and shows no signs of changing anytime soon.
Monday night we held our June Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.