This is one of our favorite bottoms-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, what we do is simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity - either bullish or bearish... but NOT both.
What we mean by this is that we have options experts, both internally and through our partnerships with TheTradeXchange, whereby we do all the digging through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients, in order to isolateonlythose options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
Something we’ve been working on internally this year is using various bottoms-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. One way we’re doing this is by identifying stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small, to mid, to large, and ultimately to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B) they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn’t just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
We've already had some great trades come out of this Small-Cap focused column since we launched it late last year and began rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, "Under The Hood."
To make the cut for our Minor Leagues list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. After applying price and liquidity filters, we simply sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Gold has been one of the last places we have wanted to put our money over the past eight months, second only to Bonds.
Other areas of the commodities space, like Base Metals, Energy, and Ags, along with risk assets in general have experienced an explosive rally. While Precious Metals have gone nowhere. But are we starting to see signs that this could be changing?
Last week we pointed out that Lumber had reached our target and could be due for a pullback. And we’re seeing that play out.
As the market has become increasingly mixed, it's time to switch up our strategy a bit.
As we outlined in our post yesterday, for the first time in about a year, we are shorting stocks.
But this statement requires an asterisk...
We are shorting some stocks. And at the same time, we're still buying the leaders as plenty of stocks continue to show impressive strength -- particularly those with cyclical or value characteristics. That's where we're focusing for long ideas.
As for shorts, it's all growth. That is where the weakness is. We're not only seeing deterioration and relative weakness at the index level for growth stocks -- the internals are also deteriorating beneath the surface.
This is simply a tale of two markets. As growth-heavy averages like the Nasdaq roll over, the leadership areas are registering bullish breadth thrusts and carrying on higher like business as usual.
As noted in the Mystery post last week, the rounding bottom in question is a pattern we've become all too familiar with since last year.
The reason for this is simple: The chart was merely a derivative - or just another way to illustrate and visualize the overarching theme that's driving so many of our cross-asset relationships these days... The sustained rotation out of Growthand into Value.
We've written a lot about this theme since last year, and more recently have been pounding the table on a new theme that's taken the forefront for markets across the globe... We believe we're in for a trendless or rangebound period for risk assets as well as an increasingly bifurcated or mixed market.
Much of this divergence in performance among various groups can be directly attributed to this trend toward value and away from growth.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
One of the most frustrating questions plaguing investors at the moment is... "How long will this choppy environment last?"
And one question we’re asking internally is… “What is with all these mixed signals!?”
Once the latter clears itself up, we'll have our answer to the former... But not until then.
When the outlook becomes increasingly murky, the best action is to take a step back, let the smoke clear, and weigh each new piece of evidence as it becomes available.
For now, the most important evidence we have is our list of risk-on commodities and equity indexes testing critical levels of interest grows larger by the day.
There seems to be no end in sight. Complicating matters further, we’re actually seeing this kind of price action throughout the risk asset landscape. It's not isolated to a single asset class or region. We're seeing it in Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, and even Currency Markets... and not just in the US, but also abroad.
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
You can consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes as well as discuss the most important themes and developments taking place in markets all around the world.
While the weight of the evidence remains in the bull's favor, we continue to see more data arrive that suggests the environment could be shifting toward one that is less conducive to risk assets, at least over shorter timeframes.
Something we’ve been working on internally this year is using various bottoms-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. One way we’re doing this is by identifying stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small, to mid, to large, and ultimately to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B) they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn’t just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
The bullish picture still lies as a structural backdrop.
But now, we're seeing mixed signals as many areas have become increasingly vulnerable in recent weeks. This is all taking place as defensive assets have found a footing for the first time in over a year, while risk-on assets approach logical levels of supply.
Recent weakness has been particularly isolated in former leadership groups, like Small-Caps and Growth-heavy areas.
We've already had some great trades come out of this Small-Cap focused column since we launched it late last year and started rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, "Under The Hood."
Ultimately, to make the cut for our Minor Leagues list, you must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters.
Then, we simply sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players only.