The greenback doesn’t know which way to go, as FX markets offer traders little in the way of breakouts.
Instead of reviewing the chopfest, playing devil’s advocate, and weighing the lack of evidence for a near-term directional bias, let’s turn to a trending market for insight into the dollar.
Spoiler alert: It’s shiny, yellow, and trading at new all-time highs.
Yes, I’m referring to Gold.
Gold and the US dollar hold a classic intermarket relationship — an overt negative correlation.
As I reviewed the charts this weekend, another pattern emerged between the two.
I decided to offset Gold ahead of the dollar by roughly two to four years. After adjusting the charts, I landed on setting Gold forward by 130 weeks (approximately two-and-a-half years).
We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.
That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.
To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list now, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.
Gold is up for the sixth day in a row – and it looks like this week’s breakout might be the real deal.
If it is — and gold continues to rip — it’s only a matter of time before copper breaks out too.
Check out the overlay chart of gold and copper futures:
Where gold goes, copper follows. Or perhaps they simply enjoy similar paths.
The rhyme or reason makes no difference. During a commodity bull run, precious and industrial metals will enter a broad markup phase. Gold will not take off on a rip-roaring rally without copper by its side.
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.
However, when it comes to our latest project, it couldn't be any simpler!
With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.
Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.
This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.
There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.
Bitcoin is screaming its way back to the former all-time highs. Crude is printing multi-month highs. Even gold is breaking out to new all-time highs after going nowhere for years.
In today's post, we're talking about a group of stocks that have emerged as the 'Generals' of the current bull market.
You are thinking, “it must be tech.”
It’s not.
Industrials have been just as strong as tech stocks but with far better internals. No other sector has experienced the kind of broad participation we’re seeing from industrials. These are the real market leaders.
Historically, the Industrial sector is the one with the highest correlation to the overall market. So, the strength of these stocks is also sending us very bullish information about the health of this bull market.
This is great news, but today’s note is about looking under the hood and finding the best opportunities in the various industrial subgroups.
As one of the most diverse sectors, investors have plenty of options in the world of industrials. We did the work and dug into this space to find out what the strongest areas are and where we want to put our money.
Let’s get into it.
Here’s the Large-Cap Industrial Sector $XLI breaking out of a multi-year base:
Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended March 1, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.