From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Dynamic Portfolio Update: With the weight of the evidence improving, we are putting some cash to work in the cyclical portfolio while also staying well-positioned for opportunities from a tactical perspective. In both portfolios we are leaning toward strength that we are finding in equities beneath the surface and beyond our borders.

The number of stocks making new lows remains negligible. Last week, the number of stocks making new 52-week highs on the NYSE + NASDAQ surpassed a number of prior peaks (Dec 2021, Apr 2022, Nov 2022). It’s now at its highest level since November 2021.

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

After Tuesday’s 9-to-1 upside volume day, our Bull Market Re-Birth Checklist is now five out of five.

Why It Matters: The conditions for a new bull market have been met. It’s hard to argue otherwise from a market perspective. Large-cap and mid-cap value indexes reached new all-time highs this week, and small-cap value is not too far behind. The trend for the market for the market is higher, even if not all the indexes (including the popular benchmarks) are trending higher. But when the trend is higher, leadership is evidence of opportunity.

This is the video recording of the February 2nd, 2023, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

2/2/23 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The January AAII asset allocation survey shows household equity exposure rising for the third month in a row and climbing to its highest level since May.    

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Both our Risk On Index and our Risk On and Risk Off (RO/RO) Ratio have climbed to their highest levels since early last year and in the process crossed back above key levels that provided support during 2021 but were violated as conditions deteriorated in 2022.

2023 is on the cusp of producing as many days with new highs greater than new lows in its first month as 2022 produced over the course of the entire year. Yet there are hurdles to overcome to convincingly argue that this recent strength is sustainable.

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

The last decade-plus has featured extended periods of US leadership and only brief bouts of with the rest of the world on top. While it may be outside of the experience or active memory for many investors, the first decade of this millennium saw the exact opposite: persistent strength from the rest of the world and little leadership from the US.

This is the video recording of the January 26th, 2023, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

1/26/23 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread was unchanged last week, remaining just beneath the level that in the past has signaled  full embrace of equities and the opportunity for sustained stock market strength.    

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Incoming economic data has been weaker than expected but our Macro Health Status report suggests the market is looking past current risks to brighter days - or perhaps it’s just whistling past the graveyard.

The S&P 500 has rallied off of its October and December lows, but the 200-day average, which rolled over in April 2022, continues to fall.