In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about the recent strength in Gold, even in the face of a Dollar that has yet to start falling. After Thursday and Friday's turn around, I think it's finally time for the Dollar to weaken. The way I see it, the relative strength we've seen in Gold was a heads up that the Dollar is set to fall. The correlation between Japanese Yen and Gold Miners on a relative basis is the intermarket relationship that stands out the most.
In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I discuss the Intermarket Relationships that help identify the next direction for US Interest Rates. These assets include Regional Bank Stocks, Utilities, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Copper, Gold and TIPS among others. Which way are Rates heading next?
If you ask 100 people what Technical Analysis is, you might get 100 different answers. In this video I try to explain what Technical Analysis means to me. There are a lot of misconceptions about what it is and what it isn't. I hope I can clear some of that up in this short video!
We live in a global market environment. There are still people out there who think that stocks in the United States go up or down because of what is happening in the United States. I think in order to properly identify the trend in stocks as an asset class, we have to look all over the world. In this video we do just that!
I can't think of a better time to talk about Fibonacci Extensions. The Dow Jones Industrial Average right now is fighting to break through an important cluster of extensions that stem from the last two epic peaks we had in the market: 2000 and 2007. A breakout above 27,000 could spark a new cyclical bull market that we believe falls within the context of an ongoing structural bull market. In other words, this is a more intermediate-term breakout (years) while structurally (decades) we have already been in a bull market since arguably 2013 or even 2016.
In this video I talk about 2 key extensions: 261.8% and 423.6% which is exactly where the Dow stopped going up in early 2018. Was 17 months enough time at these levels before we can move on? Let's discuss:
One question that I get a lot comes from new investors, "Hey JC, I'm starting to get into the market for the first time, any advice?"
For me, I'm convinced you have to get kicked in the stomach, at least once, but likely even more than that, to finally understand the importance of Risk Management. But if you can somehow figure out a way to just take my word for it, and eliminate your emotionally driven decisions completely, I believe it puts you way ahead of 99% of market participants around the world.
Here is the video from my BNN Bloomberg interview this week. We talk about the implications of a weaker US Dollar, including what that would do to stocks, emerging markets, metals and others. I've been waiting for it all year. But think about it. We've already seen some of the things we would expect to see in a weaker Dollar environment. Gold strong, for example, and an inability for the Euro to go lower. So for me, I think this Dollar fall is just getting started.
Last week I was in London giving a presentation at the local chapter of the CMT Association. We had a great turnout and they asked a lot of really smart questions. I was not surprised at all by the high caliber of attendees, from Analysts to Portfolio Managers and even younger participants eager to learn. It was awesome all around.
Prior to the event I sat down with Alex Spiroglou to talk about how I first got into Technical Analysis and what a normal day at ASC Research looks like. This is the full video of that interview.
If you still think the media is there to provide you with useful information, there is little I can do to help you. It's 2019. They're only there to sell you Buicks and razors and whatever else they can shove down your throat.
The content they provide is designed to get you to consume it for the sole purpose of selling your attention to their sponsors. That's just the business.
You have two choices: You can just take it until your punch drunk or you can take what you consume into your own hands. It's up to you.
Phil and I sat down for an interesting chat about this very topic:
Last week I sat down with Justine Underhill for Real Vision's "Trade Ideas" show to discuss a tactical trading opportunity in Palladium and a longer-term play in the Insurance industry.
These are themes I've shared with our Institutional Clients over the last few weeks. I hope you find some value in them.
Phil Pearlman has always been a good guy to talk to about a lot of different things. I know for a fact that a lot of your favorite fintwit personalities would agree with that.
Phil doesn't do a lot of media anymore like he once did, but I do get to catch up with him quite often and we publish our conversations as The Money Game Podcast. You can check out all of those episodes on Technical Analysis Radio and iTunes.
Today we're talking about what little Daisy Pearlman the puppy taught Phil about life:
We hear this term a lot: "Overhead Supply". But what does that mean exactly?
Well, I'll tell you what it means to me. When I look at today's stock market, I see stocks rallying throughout 2017 and running into resistance, or more selling than buying, in January of 2018. After some distribution, stocks rallied once again late into the 3rd quarter last year, only fail and sell off. That was a beautiful sell-off in stocks that many of us enjoyed very much.
Fast forward to 2019 and we've had a killer rally in stocks that has brought us back to where this overhead supply party first got started early last year. This is now the 3rd attempt and failure for stocks. And when I say stocks, I don't just mean the S&P500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average, I'm referring to stocks as an asset class.
