Tuesday night we held our September Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each
We've seen these cycles play out over and over again throughout many decades.
But how do we profit from it all?
Well, for me, I like to use seasonal tendencies to help put the current market environment into context.
It's not about today and tomorrow, and it's not about next year. Where are we right now?
Our Cycle Composite does a good job of helping us put together a road map for this market's cycle.
On the left side of this chart we have the 2021 seasonal trends and on the right we have the 2022 trends.
Last year's composite includes every year since 1950, every post election year since 1950 and every year ending in 1, to include the decennial cycle. Look how closely last year's actual results mirrored the composite:
Monday night we held our August Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
If it walks like a duck and quacks like duck, then it's probably not a chicken.
That's how I look at what is potentially year 3 of a new bull market.
Look at all the most important cycle bottoms in stock market history.
You'll notice the powerful thrust in year 1, followed by a messy digestion of those gains in year 2. And then all those bull markets resumed in year 3:
The official period for this year's Santa Claus Rally begins on Monday December 27th.
Remember, the Santa Claus Rally includes the last 5 days of the year, and the first 2 days of the following year. So this year's SCR starts on Monday Dec 27th and runs through Tuesday Jan 4th.
The first half of December wasn't the best time for stock investors. But keep in mind that historically, it's the second half of December that's the most bullish time of this month for stocks.
So what should we expect for this year's Santa Claus Rally?
Well, for me it's less about Santa showing up and more about the implications of him not showing up.
As we make our way through the earlier stages of the most bullish time of the year, who better to talk to than Jeff Hirsch, Author of the annual Stock Trader's Almanac.
When it comes to Technical Analysis, what we're doing is analyzing the behavior of the market, and therefore market participants. Seasonality falls under that umbrella and Jeff Hirsch is the ultimate authority on the subject. He's had a front row seat his entire life to how markets trend during different times of the year.
In this episode, we talk about "The Best 6 months", the 4-year Presidential Cycle, Commodities Seasonality, and we even get to learn a little more about his father Yale Hirsch, the originator of the Almanac back in the 1960s.
