From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This is the video recording of the August 19 Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche

08/19/21 2PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• Inflation narratives, not inflation itself, proving to be transitory 
• Economic rebound and higher inflation sapping financial liquidity
• Stocks (and bonds) usually struggle when inflation surges

With inflation, first it shocks you then it sneaks up on you. That is the way it has played out in 2021. This Spring, when the yearly inflation numbers started to heat up, newspapers ran banner headlines announcing the news and inflation-related Google searches exploded. In the months since, inflation has moved out of the headlines and searches related to it have fallen. What has shown little sign of letting up is inflation itself. 

• With a handful of mega-caps driving index-level returns, we want to see sector-level leadership confirmed by similar sector strength on an equal-weight basis, as well as further down the capitalization scale.
• Financials are the top-ranked sector in our rankings on both a cap-weight and equal-weight basis. Strength fades among mid-cap and small-cap Financials. Real Estate remains a leader across the board from a weighting and size perspective, though it has slipped on a short-term basis.  

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Clues From Kiwis

We often look to the Australian dollar as a barometer for global growth, but we can take that analysis one step further by checking in on the arguably more cyclical currency, the New Zealand dollar. It often gives us a nice leading signal on AUD/USD. With a good portion of the New Zealand economy being driven by agriculture, tourism, and international trade, the NZD acts as a nice microcosm for the global economy.

At notable turning points in these trends, we tend to see the New Zealand dollar provide a heads up before it’s reflected in the Australian dollar. Over the last few weeks, while the AUD has been making fresh lows, the NZD has been remarkably resilient, carving out higher lows.

Will this divergence resolve with AUD soon catching higher? The action from cyclicals would certainly support that outcome.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Consumer Sentiment for August was expected to be little changed from where it was in July (81.2). The actual data (based on responses collected over the first half of the month) showed consumer sentiment undercutting last year’s lows and dropping to its lowest in nearly a decade. While consumers’ assessment of current conditions moved lower in August, the collapse in the overall sentiment index was really fueled by more dour expectations about the road ahead. Consumer expectations indexes are considered leading indicators for the economy overall and the August collapse may point to increased economic headwinds as we head toward the end of the year.

This is the video recording of the August 12th Town Hall Meeting w/ Willie Delwiche

08/12/21 2PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I enjoyed the chance to catch up with my friend Oliver Renick on the TD Ameritrade Network yesterday afternoon. You can see the entire conversation here, but I wanted to highlight (and expand on) a couple of things he and I talked about.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.