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[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

February 28, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

High Yield Holds The Line

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

February 28, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

[PLUS] Weekly Market Notes & Breadth Trends

February 28, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

  • In an effort to fight inflation, the Fed is likely to accept volatility but will be wary of stress.
  • Equity market trends are deteriorating.
  • Preserve capital and sanity - market doesn’t hand out participation medals.

Offsetting this likely need for more aggressive tightening is the potential for sanctions to strain the financial system in unexpected ways. When liquidity gets disrupted signs of stress can emerge. A widening in high yield spreads and/or a breakdown in the ratio between high yield bond and Treasury ETFs would be evidence that volatility is morphing into stress. That could slow the pace at which the Fed tightens and in the process worsen the problem of inflation.

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

February 25, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

It was certainly a busy week filled with volatility-inducing headlines that produced sharp sell-offs and stunning reversals. And all in just four trading days. Stepping back from the noise, it can be helpful to take stock of what has changed and what has not. One of the things that has not changed, is that on the NASDAQ new lows continue to outnumber new highs. It is true that there were fewer new lows on Thursday than there were at the January low. But for evidence of sustainable improvement, we don’t just want to see fewer new lows, but actually see more new highs than new lows. It has been 35 trading days since that has happened, the longest such stretch since late 2018/ early 2019 (and the second longest stretch since the financial crisis more than a decade ago). When this changes (and at some point it will) we can think about the NASDAQ from a more constructive perspective. Until then, it might be best to remember that the best rallies tend to occur within bear markets and those are best observed from the sidelines.

[PLUS] Dynamic Portfolio Management - Seeking Strength in Equity Exposure

February 24, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

With equity market trends in the US deteriorating, we have reduced domestic equity exposure in our Cyclical and Tactical Portfolios. We are adding equity exposure where we are seeing strength overseas and remembering that asset allocation decisions don't just come down to stocks vs bonds, but include commodities and cash as well.

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

February 23, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Optimism wanes, and pessimism builds as the II bull-bear spread narrowed last week to just 1.2%, down more than 4% from the previous week. That brings the spread to its smallest difference since early April 2020. But it’s not until bears outnumber the bulls that we reach levels associated with significant market bottoms. Nevertheless, a surge in pessimism could become reality with active equity managers continuing to reduce exposure, consensus bulls dropping, and major equity indexes testing their respective January lows. Whether sentiment has completely unwound or is still in the process of unwinding is yet to be determined.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Unwound or Unwinding

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

February 21, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Industrials Are On The Ledge

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

February 21, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

February 18, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

There are plenty of ways in which we make our lives more complicated. There’s an endless list of things we could look at that would obscure our perspective. If I’ve learned anything in nearly a quarter century in this business, it’s that simple trumps complicated and clarity beats obscurity. That’s what makes this week’s one for the weekend so lovely. The 48 markets that make up the ACWI can be summed up in seven charts: 3 regional composites and 4 individual countries. A single slide provides a great starting point for identifying new opportunities and increasing risks on a global scale. The message now is straightforward. The UK and Canada have broken out on a relative basis and EM looks like it wants to. The US has pulled back to an important juncture and the rest of the world remains messy. (Shout out to Grant for putting this global dashboard together.)