Today's trade is going to leverage the rising volatilities introduced into the stock market this week thanks to testimony from the Federal Reserve Chairman (I've been told).
When markets get dicey and volatility rises, I like to look at my universe of Sector ETFs and choose one that is both displaying higher relative options prices than its peers and looks set up for rangebound trading action over the next 3-5 weeks.
An ETF near the top of my list is the Materials sector ETF $XLB. We're going to bet on the recent sloppy trading action to continue sideways for a bit, and we're going to sell a delta-neutral spread to collect premium and position ourselves to earn the decay.
There's a trade perking up from the most recent Hall of Famers report that is ready for us to get involved. We're going to do it via a debit option spread with defined risk and a chart level that keeps risk manageable.
And when I do, I usually suffer the consequences – almost without exception.
But today is one of those exceptions. Thankfully.
Recently, in an effort to fade the rising volatility in the options market arising from the 3-4 week pullback from recent stock market highs, I sold naked puts in a large cap stock – Occidental Petroleum $OXY.
I like the name for a number of reasons, the most prominent being that Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway) has been acquiring large blocks of stock just below current levels. This is support.
So when the broader markets were continuing their slide a couple of weeks ago, I felt $OXY was a high probability bet to hold these levels until the mini-market panic cooled off, and selling premium via $OXY puts seemed like an intelligent way to play it.
Stocks continue to be slippery with the S&P 500 down 6 out of the last 8 trading days.
I'm in the camp that this is a constructive pullback after a fantastic run to kick off 2023. JC has been pounding the table all month about how sloppy, digestive trading action in the month of February is perfectly normal market behaviour.
With February drawing to a close soon, I wouldn't be suprised to see this downdraft exhaust itself soon. As such, I'm going to make a tactical bet that a leading name in the banking/finance sector is going to hold these levels and potentially lead the way back to 2023 highs.
If there are no profits taken, there is no winning. And if there is no winning, then what am I even doing here?
Subscribers to the various options education services we provide at All Star Charts know that I’m usually very clear about where I’ll take profits in the various trades I put on. Most trades have a profit target and I set the GTC limit orders out in the market and let them get hit. I’m hands-off. Unemotional.
So it would seem that I’m pretty automatic about this practice of profit-taking in all realms of the market in which I engage.
You might be surprised that this hasn’t been true in my personal index options trading.
Slippery markets make for rising options premiums. And one sector ETF is currently rising head and shoulders above the rest, offering some juicy premiums for us to sell into along with a wide risk management band for us to dance in.
So let's take advantage of the rising fear in this sector for an opportunistic trade and potentially quick profits.
When I last wrote to you, I was mired in a spiral of frustration as I grappled with understanding what went wrong with one of my strategies, what I missed that opened the door to a larger-than-expected loss, and how to move forward.
I’m happy to report that I’ve come out the other side.
The only way out is through.
That’s always been true for me, at least.
My wife can attest: up until yesterday, for a week I’d been walking around like a grumpy zombie, lost in repetitive thought, running mind simulations of hundreds of scenarios and if/then situations. 99% of the ideas were just simple regurgitations of things I tried and failed at in the past. It takes tremendous effort for me to remind myself: been there, done that.
I often waste significant time and energy rehashing old tricks I’ve employed in the past that I’d already proven don’t work as intended. Being better about journaling and reviewing said journal regularly would probably help me out with this.