We kicked around a few ideas in this morning's Analyst meeting and the one thing that stood out to me is that I do not currently have any long exposure to the healthcare sector --- one of the strongest sectors out there.
That changes today.
We're going to get long a familiar name in the space, but we're going to do it carefully with a defined risk spread because we've got earnings coming up soon. So we'll go for a longer-duration trade and bet on earnings to be a catalyst for higher prices.
Strazza and I have been having fun discussing options stuff on Twitter Spaces over the past few weeks. Even our friend Brian Lund (@bclund) has been contributing mightily to the conversations.
The topic of discussion has mostly centered around 0-DTE – or daily expiring – options and some experimentation I’ve been doing in this very active corner of the options market. While I will continue to talk about that, we decided we want to broaden out the topic material to include anything else we’re seeing that we can trade with options.
We’ll discuss trades we have on, trades we might be considering entering or anything else that feels topical in the world of options.
During the calls, we like to encourage audience participation. One piece of feedback I’ve heard from a few of you is that you don’t know how to actually participate. “Where’s the button to raise my hand?”
McDonald's just put "300-dolla-rolls" on the menu. Sweet and delicious. Limited time offer.
Many of you know that my all time favorite options trades are simple long calls on stocks making new all-time highs. And when you add in a big round number up ahead within spitting distance, it's hard for me not to get excited.
So we're going to put on a short-term play to catch those rolls in $MCD while they're hot!
We got into and quickly out of a trade in Microstrategy $MSTR over the past two weeks. Whipsaws suck. But the way the stock has quickly battled back is telling me we weren't wrong, just early. And I'm getting back in, but with a new stop loss level.
Aha! moments often occur when we are faced with a problem or a situation that requires us to think outside the box. They can happen when we are struggling to find a solution to a problem, and suddenly, a new idea pops into our heads.
Think about the story of Archimedes, who had an Aha! moment when he saw the water in his bathtub overflow. Suddenly, he realized that the volume of an object can be measured by the amount of water it displaces.
Another example of an Aha! moment is when we finally understand a concept that we have been struggling with for a long time. It can be a concept in mathematics, science, or even in our personal lives. For me, they often happen in my world of trading.
In fact, I would argue that a career spent engaged in trading the markets by definition is a career defined by hops from one Aha! moment to the next.
[9/7: updated stop to 48. We're already #FreeRiding here, so whatever we sell the remaining portion of the position for is pure profit!]
According to "the news," Americans can't afford to buy homes and rising mortgage costs will only deepen the problem.
Cool story, bro.
Do you know what disagrees? The price of virtually every publicly traded homebuilding company. We're already long Lennar and Toll Brothers which continue to work for us.
Next up is KB Homes $KBH, which appears to be on the verge of a big breakout following a welcome response to its recent earnings report.
If you’ve tuned in to either of my “Expiring Daily” Twitter spaces talks over the past two Mondays, you’ve heard me talking about a trading strategy I’m currently in the process of iterating that involves daily expiring options in the S&P 500 options complex ($SPY and $SPX options, specifically).
A thoughtful listener sent me an email with a bunch of questions about it, and I thought my answers to him might be enlightening to some of you who may be tinkering with strategy construction, particularly with short-dated, high-gamma options.
As I told the emailer, I can answer questions as of my thinking RIGHT NOW. But please know this is a work-in-process, and I’m continually tweaking my entry/exit/adjustment parameters as I learn more.
The thing about options is that participants in these markets are very good at pricing in expected moves. You'd be amazed at how often the options market nails the expected move in an instrument before it happens.
Like point spreads in sports betting, it's amazing how often they nail it.
But when options are mispriced, meaning traders are not expecting something -- that's where big wins can happen for those who position accordingly.
We think one such opportunity is presenting itself in the consumer staples corner of the world. And if we get right, we might have a 20-bagger on our hands.
Stocks and Futures traders like to talk about how they use stop-loss orders to define their risks, and that’s smart.
A lifetime ago I managed a small, independent hedge fund that traded commodities with a trend-following strategy. This strategy entered positions that I’d attempt to hold for weeks or months (if they were working).
Every position I had on had a resting stop-loss order working in the market, giving me comfort that I knew the most I could lose if I was wrong.
All that comfort I was enjoying changed one day after a trip to my clearing firm’s office in downtown Chicago.
I sat down with one of the firm’s risk managers for a simple “get-to-know-you” chat. He was curious about my trading and just wanted to get to know me a little better and see if there were any ways in which he could help me get to the next level.
We got into the weeds of my trading strategy and he was nodding along in agreement that he was in favor of what I was doing and he thought the returns I was earning were impressive and better than average for accounts of similar size with that firm.
If you would've told me a few months ago that we'd see a large crypto exchange (FTX) go bust and later a number of big banks become insolvent and collapse to zero, I would've laughed you out of the room if you followed up with: "...and bitcoin will rally."
I mean, there is no way I would've agreed with that sentiment.
Thankfully, I don't get paid for my opinions. Because the market couldn't care less about what I think.
The strength in Bitcoin (and crypto in general) has truly been a sight to behold in recent months and in particular over the last few weeks.
The poster child instrument to play bitcoin in the equities market is via Microstrategy $MSTR. For those with their head in the sand on all thing bitcoin, this software services company has transformed itself into essentially a bitcoin ETF, having invested all of its working capital into bitcoing, and taking loans to leverage into even more bitcoin.
We'll leave the discussion on whether or not this is crazy to another blog post. But for now, MSTR offers us a great way to participate in continued strength in bitcoin and we're going to do it with a defined risk options spread.
The shorter my timeframe, the shittier the market. ~ Brian Lund @bclund
That quote was uttered during a Twitter spaces I hosted yesterday in which we discussed the emergence of “0-DTE” options and the opportunities and challenges they are spawning.
As Brian brought up, the phrase “0-DTE” which stands for “zero days until expiration” is a bit of a misnomer as options that are expiring today were not necessarily first listed for trading on the same day that they expire. Regarding SPY or SPX options, some of these “daily” options are first listed for trading as far as two weeks from expiration day. So if you were to look at the options chain for SPY, you would see options expiring every day over the next two weeks.
