I make quick decisions.

Is that because I’m a trader? Or am I a trader because I make quick decisions?

Over time, I think I’ve come to the conclusion that being a trader has instilled in me a knack and preference for quick decision-making. I wasn’t always like this. 25 years of trading has taught me to work with only 75% of the information I might want, and that is good enough to take action.

The phrase “invest, then investigate,” as Stanley Druckenmiller said, comes to mind.

Outside of trading, this can also affect my day-to-day decision-making. I think it frustrates my wife when I make decisions so quickly. In her mind, she probably thinks I’m being irrational, emotional, or acting on impulse. She, in contrast, is very deliberate. Cautious. Analyzes every detail…

Full Disclosure: I'm a Buffalo Bills fan. As such, I'm excited about this upcoming NFL season. This is the year! Does this fact color my interest in today's trade? Maybe.

I get all my speculative juice in the financial markets. But there is a growing number of Americans who are jumping into online sports betting. The increases in both participation and dollars wagered is skyrocketing.

Today's trade is a bet on a continuation of this trend that will likely be driven by the next NFL season.

Options premiums have risen a little bit in recent days due to the fed, earnings, government data, and trader indecision, and [insert your favorite scary story].

Whatever the reason, this feels like a good time and opportunity to add some delta-neutral positions to my portfolio.

So let's get right to it.

You might have seen some of my tweets about an impressive trader I met earlier this week. I felt the encounter was too good to keep to myself – so here’s the full story…

I had a truly profound experience at the traders meetup I hosted in Denver on Tuesday night, where I met a new trader who completely blew me away.

Despite only having about a year of experience trading real money, this young man in his early 30s had a depth of knowledge and understanding that was truly remarkable. He carried with him a notebook filled with detailed market observations, trading strategies, post-mortems on trades, and more. No detail was left unnoticed, and his passion for trading was evident in everything he said.

What was even more impressive was his humility. He was incredibly smart, but he didn't flaunt his intelligence or try to impress anyone with his knowledge. Instead, he was genuinely curious about trading and had a thirst for knowledge that was inspiring to see.

[10/19/23 Update: moved stop to 125]

If stock markets are about to recover and start another leg higher back towards all-time highs, I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Google (Alphabet) $GOOG doesn't at least retake last summer's highs north of $123 per share.

Call me crazy, but that's where my head's at.

Take a look at the coil that $GOOGL is working through right now:

The $GOOGL and $GOOG charts look the same. It's confusing and annoying that they have two shares classes (the "L" shares come with voting rights, the others do not).

The GOOG options have more open interest and volume, so that's where we will put on our trade.

I imagine it’s not uncommon for people to realize sooner or later that the person they thought they were is not at all who they really are. Perhaps not even close.

Are you being yourself?

Think hard about this. And be careful. Because your conclusion might have important ramifications beyond your day-to-day daydreaming through life. It will also likely have significant impacts on who you are as a trader and how you approach your relationship with risk – even your courtship of success (or lack thereof).

Everyone’s path to personal discovery will have its own speed limit, hills and valleys, and complements of sharp turns and extreme weather conditions.

The visibility isn’t always clear. For me, the wiper-fluid that cleaned my windows and sharpened my vision was my elimination of alcohol from my routine.

As we're starting to get the latest round of earnings reports into the rear-view mirror, we're getting some clarity on the next crop of leaders for a potential move higher in the stock market.

Today's trade is on an emerging leader in the Defense sector that positions us very offensively for the next move up.

Let's get to it!

This week will be an opportunity for me to practice the art of giving up control. It will also be an incredible opportunity to practice acceptance and patience.

The market is open and I’m typing this piece while traveling 30,000 feet above Midwestern corn fields en route to New York City.

Thankfully, I’ve got internet access on the plane and can keep tabs on the market and my positions. But it’s not perfect. Anyone who’s tried to work with airplane WiFi knows it isn’t always as reliable as we’d like it to be.

I’m headed to NYC to reconnect with the All Star Charts team, celebrate our friend Brian Shannon in honor of his recent book release, and attend the Chartered Market Technician’s 50th Annual Symposium.

All week, I’ll be gathering with some of the smartest market minds, driven traders, and portfolio managers around. I’m hoping to sponge as much great content and smart ideas as I can possibly cram into my cranium.

The challenge for me will be in managing my open positions — particularly my highly active index options trading.

In an effort to provide some much-needed portfolio diversification, I'm adding a delta-neutral credit spread to the mix.

There aren't a whole lot of juicy premiums out there (thank you plummeting $VIX!), but there is an ETF in a sector that looks set up for some sideways digestion over the near term that should play nice with a short Strangle.

P.S. We do trades like this regularly. If you'd like to leverage Best-in-Class technical analysis into smarter directional options trades, try out All Star Options Risk Free! Or give us a call to learn more: 323-421-7991.

Finally, a setup I love that has earnings out of the way! There's light at the end of the tunnel. And no surprise I find this setup in a strong sector that wants to lead the market higher.

We're going to leverage some cheap options to position for a breakout to 52-week highs in this big cap name.

I’m in the process of creating a formal “business plan” for one of my trading strategies.

In 2002, I went through an arduous experience of creating an operating agreement, disclosure documents, and strategy explainers to attract investors as I built a small commodities hedge fund from scratch. Ignorance was bliss.

It was a chore, but a worthwhile investment in my time and energy because I ultimately won the business and started the fund. Success!

Now I’m entertaining the idea of managing OPM (other people’s money) again, and I’m reminded of the rewards of this process.

For a swing trader like me, earnings season is always tough. I often find myself in a situation where my favorite setups have a looming earnings release on the nearby horizon, introducing binary risks that make me uncomfortable.

And this season is no different. All of my favorite setups right now are fraught with earnings risk.

But I've found one opportunity where a pending earnings release may actually benefit us, allowing us to get positioned at attractive prices for a post-earnings run.