Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our weekly state of the union address, as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridg
Money really likes to flow where it's treated the best… and as far as sectors and even most industry groups go, there simply isn't much alpha out there at the moment.
In analyzing relative trends, we’re always aware of how the overall stock market is performing against defensive assets.
In today’s post, we’re going to check in on those sectors investors pile into when seeking safety as opposed to positioning for risk.
Utilities, Real Estate, and Staples... the “bond proxy” groups. Let's dive in.
Here's a custom index of them all charted relative to the broader market.
Notice how the relationship has stopped trending lower since it bottomed back in July.
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July last year to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
This week, Nifty Financial Services broke out to claim an all-time high after forming a six-month base. This sector has been taking a breather for some time now, but we are finally able to see signs of improvement.
Across the world, when strong market rallies come through, they come in unison with Financials. So if this current rally has to continue, we need the support of this sector. Are we going to get that though? Let's see what the charts are saying.
Here is Nifty Financial Services on a monthly timeframe. We do see a resolution of the trend. And prior to that, did you notice something interesting? Something we like to see in particular?
The price was consolidating above the Fibonacci level. That's a good sign. Always!
So now that we have this resolution in trend, the next level we're tracking is 23,350.
Keep in mind, this is a MONTHLY chart. Hence, think 23,350 in the months ahead, not weeks.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.
In our last report, we discussed all the whipsaws we had been witnessing in recent weeks and noted that the next major piece of information would be the velocity of the reactions these charts made in the opposite direction.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
For the better part of 2021, we've been pounding the table about markets being a chop fest. And we'd seen little evidence suggesting this was likely to change any time soon--until this week, that is.
Trendless… range-bound… call it whatever you want, but the path of least resistance for stocks and many other risk assets has simply been sideways!
Alas, we’re seeing some strong bullish action this week that we simply can’t ignore. Let's talk about it.
Before we get there, though, let’s take a step back and look at small- and micro-caps, as they provide great illustrations of this sloppy stock market story...
SMIDs and micros have not been able to make any real progress for most of the year.
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for various asset classes and categories, along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.
In our last report, we pounded the table on our position that markets are a total mess these days. Another theme we hit on was how many significant risk assets were trading at or below critical levels of overhead supply.
Stocks in the U.S. and around the world, Interest Rates both domestic and global, Commodities, Currencies and an infinite amount of Intermarket Relationships that help us identify trends across assets.
Price is what pays. Not just around here, but also for you reading this, as well as every other investor on the planet.
Nothing else is going to pay you.
So when it comes to "What is the best Technical Indicator?"
The answer is Price.
Now, in order to supplement our price analysis, we include things like Momentum and Breadth studies, Relative Strength, Sentiment, Seasonality, Volatility and a bunch of new tools and strategies that we continue to develop as markets evolve over time.
Sentiment can be a tricky one.
I think anyone who has been in markets for a while would agree.
The short answer is that there is NO single sentiment indicator that will tell you when to buy or sell stocks, or any other asset class for that matter.
Where Sentiment really stands out to me is when it is at a historic extreme, which by definition, is not very often.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
In today's post, we’ll discuss some of our favorite and most important intermarket ratios and see what they’re suggesting for markets and risk appetite around the globe.
One thing we found interesting when digging through these charts is that many of them look a lot like stocks do right now.
Sideways. Range-bound. Messy. But, within the context of underlying uptrends.
So these are basically just continuation patterns on shorter timeframes.
But, after consolidating for months and even quarters now, we are beginning to see some resolve higher… kind of like we’re seeing from stocks on an absolute basis.
Coincidence? Probably not.
We think this makes a lot of sense and bodes well for risk assets. Let’s take a look at some of these charts now.
Here’s one of the most important cross-asset ratios we track, and it’s a great example of exactly what we’re talking about.
Welcome to our latest RPP Report, where we publish return tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We consider this our weekly state of the union address as we break down and reiterate both our tactical and structural outlook on various asset classes and discuss the most important themes and developments currently playing out in markets all around the world.
