From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

JC beat me to writing about Interest Rates this morning, but while I came to the same conclusion I wanted to add some additional perspective that shared on Real Vision this past Monday.

While that segment was about Mid-Cap Industrial stock Herman Miller Inc., a big part of that thesis is that we're seeing US Rates begin to stabilize.

The chart I want to share today is the Regional Banks/REITs ratio, which highlights an "Interest"-ing divergence between Equities and the Bond/Commodities markets.

I think there is a big move brewing in the U.S. Treasury Bond Market. US Interest Rates have gotten crushed along with rates all over the world. It's not just a U.S. thing, but a global phenomenon. 

Today we're updating our outlook for global markets and providing ideas to profit in the second half of 2019.

Part 1 of this playbook will provide our perspective on all four asset classes and update our views on the major themes within India that we're paying attention to.

Part 2 of this playbook will consist of our top individual stock trade ideas.

James Brodie started out auditing for Arthur Andersen and did not particularly enjoy it. In the early 1990s he started to learn about derivatives at the largest bank in the world before ultimately moving to Credit Suisse. He's lived in London, Singapore, New York and Tokyo trading currencies for both the banks and proprietary and then started his own hedge fund. James is also on the Board of the CMT Association. I really enjoyed the advice he gives about what he learned from 2 massive losses he's taken throughout his career. James is a big fan of behavioral finance and we talk about different studies where we've learned that the better traders actually have more losing trades than winning trades. Currently James is watching Gold, EURJPY and US Interest Rates and talks about how he wants to trade them. This was a fun conversation where we covered a lot of things.

This is one of my favorite things to do: Forget everything that happened in the first half of the year and start from scratch. It doesn't matter what we did or how we felt in early 2019. It's irrelevant. We're moving forward. This is my Q3 2019 Playbook.

There are a lot of interesting charts out there around the world. The current market environment has provided us with a ton of opportunities in multiple asset classes. We've talked about stocks, we discussed commodities, and today I want to focus on the Bond Market. Both Interest Rates and the most liquid exchange traded fund are at critical levels that we need to watch. 

Paul Ciana and I go way back to 2006 when him and I were studying for the CMT exams together. Today, Paul is the Chief FICC Technical Strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research. In English, that means everything outside of equities. It's nice to see your friends succeed and watching him crush it is definitely one for the good guys.

In this podcast episode we dive deep into the FX world where Paul walks us through 3 important currency pairs that all stock market investors should follow. We talk about Crude Oil and Gold and other precious metals. The Dollar is a key focus right now for both Paul and me, so we get into what the implications are for stocks and other assets around the world.

I really enjoyed this conversation. It could have gone on for hours...

Interest Rates in the United States hit new 52-week lows last month. But from the looks of it, the commodities market and stock market are not in agreement with that direction. It's when we see divergences among asset classes that it gets my attention.

Today we're looking at the divergences between stocks, bonds and commodities that I believe are pointing to higher rates this quarter. If we're going to take the weight-of-the-evidence approach, it's 2 to 1 in favor of rising interest rates. 

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

I received a ton of great responses via Twitter and email for this week's Mystery Chart, so thank you for that.

A lot of you were leaning towards the short side, with different approaches and stops. Some were neutral, but very few of you were leaning long.