The US Dollar Index’s $DXY break toward fresh lows resembles a defiant crawl more than an earnest march.
An image of dragging my children away from the toy aisle flashes across my mind.
(Actually, I let them walk around the store with their toy of choice. And then, we ditch the item before checkout after a couple rounds of negotiations. It works quite well – no screaming involved.)
But while the DXY drags its feet, the individual currencies that comprise the index are picking up the pace.
The Swiss franc is ripping. The euro is posting fresh 52-week highs. And the British pound is hitting our upside objective.
Crude oil is breaking to multi-month highs. Copper is approaching the 4-dollar level. And Silver is ripping!
I’ll have more on the precious metals front Monday with your weekly Gold Rush.
Today, I’m focusing on the grain and livestock markets. The dropping dollar has helped line up a long list of fresh trade ideas: potential failed breakouts, possible failed breakdowns, and critical levels to trade against…
I’ve parroted my bond outlook during internal meetings and across our Slack channels in recent weeks, partly in jest but mostly to highlight the underlying uptrend in rates.
Honestly, I’m not crazy about selling the short end of the curve, though I believe there’s a trade there.
Instead, there are far better opportunities with longer-duration bonds.
Shorting bonds isn’t the most popular play with the Fed and the dollar and the CPI…
But that makes me like this trade even more, especially when I put the headlines and the dominant narrative aside and simply focus on the charts…
I must admit, I’m a bit jealous. And I’m not the jealous type!
They’ll visit seven cities over the course of the next month, meeting traders and financial professionals from the tip of the Malay Peninsula all the way to Japan.
I can’t physically travel with them, but I can live vicariously through their stories and videos, and, of course, my charts…
Check out the US dollar/Singapore dollar pair:
It’s not a bad time for Strazza and Sean to be in Singapore with greenbacks in their pockets.
The most important crop report of the year has hit.
Yes, it’s generated quite the buzz over the past few weeks, as grain markets ripped higher in anticipation.
Some observers even speculated that Friday’s report was the most important in the history of the agrarian economy.
So let’s round down, be conservative, and call it the most important crop report in 5,000 years.
Seriously, though, it was a big deal, as acreage estimates for soybeans represent the largest miss since the report's inception – or, like, ever, in history.
More importantly for traders and investors, the report brought increased volatility.
If you’re like me and prefer to sit out these kinds of days, you’re patiently waiting for the dust to settle.
Meanwhile, if you’re at all put off by the volatility of these futures contracts, I have a vehicle that promises a much smoother ride…
Let’s talk about Archer Daniels Midland $ADM, “supermarket to the world.”
The $41B commodity behemoth has more than 100 years of experience in the grain markets.
The former 2011 highs remain front and center for gold futures – and all precious metals.
These shiny rocks will experience increased selling if gold slips back below those former highs marking the prior commodity supercycle peak.
Silver, palladium, and the Gold Mining ETF $GDX are already printing fresh lows. And new multi-month lows for the silver/gold ratio indicate dwindling risk appetite.
These aren’t the type of developments that support a sustained uptrend.
Yet this action hasn’t deterred gold bugs.
Despite every reason to sleep in and shirk any and all responsibilities, they continue to show up right on time…
