From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

I think we can all agree that the market is an absolute hot mess right now.

The Precious Metals complex is as good an example of this as any right now.

In this post, we’ll use this shiny group of commodities as a case study to illustrate the mixed signals we see not just here but in asset classes all over the globe these days. 

It’s a major development, to say the least - so we’d be irresponsible not to monitor it closely as the way things resolve from here will likely have implications that span across markets, far and wide. 

We’ll also provide an update of our post from earlier in the month whereby we outlined a trade idea in Gold Miners.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

We think it's time to buy Gold Miners again, specifically the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF $GDX.

The yellow metal has not been a great place to deploy capital over the last 6 months as the environment has significantly favored stocks over rocks... and risk-assets over defensive ones in general.

Owning Gold or Gold Miners has been nothing more but opportunity cost. However, there is mounting evidence that suggests now might be the time to jump back into this trade.

First, Commodities have really been working as an asset class. We've been pointing this out for months now, from Industrial Metals and Ags to even petroleum-based commodities.

Although through the early innings of this Commodities resurgence, Gold and Gold Miners have taken a back seat as prices peaked all the way back in the summer of last year and have been trending lower since.

We think that...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Ian Culley @ianculley

We just revised and updated our Commodities chartbook and there probably couldn't have been a better time as we believe we've just entered the early innings of a new Commodities Supercycle. 

As we reviewed each passing chart our bullish thesis on commodities was reinforced as the same overarching theme became clearer and clearer... Everything seems to be trending higher!

With a slew of massive bases, bullish breakouts, and major trend reversals, this once left-for-dead asset class is now demanding investors' attention.

And participation continues to expand as we're seeing strength across all subgroups. From base metals to grains and softs, it's all working.

Now let's dive into a few charts that illustrate this theme. 

Last Summer when Gold ran into those former highs from 2011, it only made sense for price to recognize that overhead supply that had been in place for close to a decade prior. Even if only temporarily, that was big time resistance way back when, sending precious metals tumbling. So to ignore that seemed irresponsible (see Sept 3rd Conference Call).

Now, at the time we did not know how long this process would take, or if it was even necessary. No one knew. My suspicion, at the time, was that it could take months, maybe even quarters. But maybe longer, or perhaps would never even break out at all. I didn't know. No one did.

So we sat back and waited while basically every other asset class on earth ripped higher, except bonds. So you could have owned pretty much anything but gold and treasury bonds and done great since Labor Day.

Now, while the market has punished owners of gold, it's treated Platinum...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

We recently held February’s Monthly Conference Call which our Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll provide a summary of the call by highlighting 5 of the most important charts/topics we covered along with commentary on each.

Let’s dive into it.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

In a post last month JC discussed the recent strength in Commodities and posed the following question...

If the CRB Index is above its 2016 lows and Crude Oil is above all those former lows from the past decade, how can we be bearish commodities?

Over the last few quarters, we've seen more and more intermarket relationships make a significant shift in favor of risk-assets.

Many are showing early signs of a structural reversal and others simply accelerating in the direction of their underlying trend.

From Bonds and Agriculture, to Chinese equities, and cyclical stocks like SMIDs, Materials...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

They say the Bond Market is where the smart money is. Maybe it is. I have no idea.

What I do know is that it's where a lot of the smart information is.

Due to the diversity among credit instruments, there is a swath of unique data that we can use not just for Bond prices and Interest Rates but also to glean insight into other asset classes.

I'm talking about things like TIPS for inflation expectations and Emerging Market or High Yield Bonds to analyze risk-appetite for other assets such as the stock market.

Alpha has been in Equities and risk-assets for a while now. As such, we haven't needed to discuss bonds from a portfolio perspective... but that doesn't mean we aren't paying close attention to these assets.

The Bond Market is overflowing with information. We'd be foolish to neglect it.

In this post, we'll dive into what we mean by this and share some of it with you. We'll also discuss the implications of what we're seeing in the...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts

The market is giving us absolutely no reason to play defense right now.

Regardless of the asset class, it's the risk-takers that are having their way in this environment.

Investors stretching out along the risk spectrum is a point we've been hammering home for some time now, particularly in our weekly RPP Reports - like this one.

Not only is this true on absolute terms, but we're also witnessing cross-asset relationships progress higher and in favor of risk-asset which can only be taken as a positive.

It's not often we see all asset classes in agreement with each other, but when we do, it's a significant driving force that supports the risk-on trade and suggests higher prices to come.

In a piece from a few weeks ago, we explored the absolute trends in the ...

This week on the podcast, Jonathan Krinsky joins me for a chat about Sector Rotation. While the Mega-cap names like Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft grinded sideways, or even down, since August, the Small-caps, Mid-caps and Micro-cap names have been the leaders. What happens if the Mega-caps break out of these bases to new all-time highs? Does the sector rotation continue? Or do we then rotate into the more defensive areas like Staples, Utilities and REITs, which currently keep making new relative lows?

Where does the US Dollar fit into all this? Will a Dollar rally bust the party and end the rotation into International equities and Commodities? We discussed all of this and so much more in a very short period of time. Jonathan Krinsky is the Chief Market Technician at Bay Crest Partners and puts out research for many long/short equity fund managers. He's a CMT like me and we've known each other for many...

This is the video recording of the January 2021 Conference Call.

This is our ASC Research Q1 2021 Playbook.

The first section dives deep into the US Stock Market and Market breadth, then we discuss the International Markets and specific Factors around the world. Next we go into U.S. Sectors and the best looking Industry Groups. In the second half of the report, we dive into the FICC space (Fixed Income, Commodities & Currencies) and their Intermarket Relationships. Finally we finish up with Cryptos, Options and overall Market Sentiment.

You can skip right to the trade ideas here if you'd like, or give the full report a read!

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.

The weight of the evidence continues to overwhelmingly lie in favor of the bulls.

The major indices are above important levels and are well on their way to achieving our targets. We're seeing sector rotation into offensive, cyclical areas of the market, and away from defensive, which is all confirming these new highs.

Commodities are showing incredible strength in the face of extreme positioning, reflecting the control buyers have in these markets.

And interest rates have claimed an important level, supporting the rotation into risk assets.

Let’s jump right into this week’s report with our US index table.

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