This is going to be a quick post, but I noticed a chart during my analysis that was too nice not to share. It just so happens that it's a great example of how a stock should act when transitioning from a downtrend to an uptrend.
Having Trading Psychologist Dr. Brett Steenbarger on the podcast was a huge treat for me. He works with the best traders on planet earth on a daily basis. Needless to say, when Dr. Brett is telling me something, I want to listen. In this episode, he let me ask him all the questions I was curious about and he happily answered them all with solid advice and relevant anecdotes. We make a lot of mistakes as investors because of our many flaws as humans. When our stress levels are elevated we start acting emotionally, instead of rationally. Taking losses is a difficult task for us, even though we all know that losses are part of the deal. I really enjoyed this conversation and it could have gone on forever if I didn't end it. I hope you get as much value from this chat as I did.
There's a saying among market participants that "all gaps need to be filled" or "all gaps are eventually filled", but as with most market generalizations, this saying shouldn't be taken at face value.
This post is going to discuss the four types of gaps and explain why this phrase is not something any market participant should take seriously.
Over the years I've been asked this question a lot: "What do I do? Should I sell now?"
This is often accompanied by a story about how they bought a stock or asset and it went down in price instead of up. The blame usually goes to a financial advisor or local friend who gave them "the tip". They entered into the position without a plan and now they don't know what to do with their unrealized losses.
When we want to see what the market is doing on a given day, we all have our list of the ticker symbols we punch in: $DJIA or $SPY or $QQQ. Some people are more global and look at things like Gold, Crude Oil or Interest Rates and countries like Japanese or German Indexes. I talk to guys and gals who tell me the Russell2000 is the market for them. We're all different. The point is to be true to who you are and act accordingly.
I get asked a lot what that list is for me. The way I interpret this question is, “What are the 15 ticker symbols I punch into my charting software to see what the market did or is doing at any point during the day or night?”.
It's easy to say. You hear it all the time. That word, "Patience".
How many of us actual put this into practice? It isn't easy. We're an instant gratification society. How happy does it make you feel when someone 'likes' a picture of your kid, or the beach selfie you took over the weekend. Traders get similar dopamine kicks when we enter a trade, and that soothing bling sound on the computer goes off, almost as a reward for entering the trade. You notice how those post trade sounds are never something ugly and nasty like the sound of a car accident or something horrible. It probably should be, because that trade you just put on is most likely going to lose you money. That's not blingy like the default audio settings on your trading platform are suggesting.
The point is that in both markets and in life, I think we need to recognize what is just making us happy today vs what will make us happy in the future. Temporal Discounting is what the behavioral finance people call it. Who are you trying to make happy - the JC now or the future JC? I think it's important to approach both life and the markets by proposing this question.
Counter-trend trades are lower probability by nature, which means risk management is vital both when they work and when they don't. Taking the loss and reevaluating when the trade thesis is invalidated is something most traders think about, but managing risk on a trade that begins to work right away is just as important and not discussed as often.
Today I want to look at the importance of managing positions that begin working right away, so that we can avoid winning trades turning into losers.
The last two months have not been kind to India's stock market, which is why we've been approaching it from a more neutral perspective for most of that time. Although big selloffs are never fun, the progression of this trend from its start to now has been pretty orderly.
We want to use this post to lay out that progression for educational purposes, as well as update our views on the market now.
This past weekend I was down in San Diego for the annual Trade Ideas Summit. I gave a presentation earlier in the day, which you can watch here, and then sat on panel later in the afternoon with some really smart guys. So I thought it would add value to share this conversation with everyone.
This past weekend we wrote updates for our US and India subscribers, discussing stock market breadth around the globe. When I do these types of updates, we often get asked why we look at international markets both in their local currency terms AND as US-listed ETFs. Why not one or the other? In this quick post we'll walk through our thought process behind it.
Cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a nice few days after a long rout, meaning my timeline is now filled with Bitcoin charts and the like. To be honest I've been so busy with charts for Allstarcharts India that I hadn't checked my crypto charts in a while. Well, I'm glad I did because the chart of Ethereum is a textbook example of a core Technical Analysis concept, polarity.
