It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

The US dollar index $DXY registered a "death cross" last week, confirming a bearish trend reversal.

But it's not the confirmation of the dollar downtrend that has my attention. It's what the signal suggests for stocks in the coming months and quarters.

Check it out!

This is the video recording of the January 2023 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Perhaps you’ve noticed that I don’t use moving averages.

For starters, I don’t like the way they look.

They muddy the pristine waters of price. And if I can't pick up on the underlying trend by looking at price action, then god help me.

Regardless, I do my best to stay open-minded. Everyone has their own process. Mine works for me, but that doesn’t make it superior by any stretch.

So, when Grant @GrantHawkridge dropped a US Dollar Index $DXY moving average crossover study in our analyst Slack chat last weekend, I couldn’t resist.

It wasn’t because it highlighted the “death cross” (when a 50-day moving average falls below a longer-term 200-day average), which always stirs a great deal of excitement.

Nor was it what his study suggests for the dollar in the coming weeks and quarters. 

Rather, it’s what it implies for US stocks.

Check out the chart of the DXY with a 50-day (blue line) and a 200-day simple moving average (red line):

It seems like everyone is making money in the market these days.

US Stock market investors are crushing it.

Investors in foreign stocks are doing even better!

Heck, even the Gold bugs are getting paid.

I mean, who isn't?

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

Is the dollar going to finally bounce?

I have no idea, but the euro will likely answer that question in the coming days.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Is the dollar going to finally bounce?

As I pointed out last week, if there was ever a place or time – it's’ now! But that doesn’t mean it’ll happen…. 

One thing is certain: The markets don’t care what I think. This includes the US dollar.

But when I look at a chart of the EUR/USD, the largest component of the US Dollar Index $DXY, it’s running into a logical level of resistance.

How the euro reacts to current levels will set the tone for the dollar in the coming weeks and months.

Check out the daily chart of the EUR/USD:

This is the video recording of our January 3rd Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

It's the 2023 inaugural weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

And we're kicking it off with the US Dollar Index $DXY!

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’m not big into seasonality.

I pay attention to it, of course. But it’s not in my top three data points after price. 

Don’t get me wrong, seasonality brings context and enhances awareness of any given market – which should be a priority for any trader or investor.

I have multiple almanacs on my desk, including the Stock Trader’s Almanac by Jeff Hirsch and Christopher Mistal and the Spectra Markets Trader Handbook and Almanac by Brent Donnelly and Justin Ross.

Was 2022 such a hard year in the market like the media keeps telling you?

Or was it just a normal year that was hard, because every year is hard?

I think about this a lot.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What a year for currency markets!

The USD/JPY tested its 1998 highs marked by the Asian Financial Crisis. The British pound revisited its all-time lows. And the euro fell below parity versus the US dollar for the first time in twenty years.

But where does that leave the King Dollar heading into Q1 2023 now that it has fallen almost 10% off its September peak and many global currencies have reclaimed key levels?

Let’s turn to the charts for some answers…

First, take a look at the US dollar index $DXY:

You go on the twitter and all you see are people complaining about what a bad year this is for stocks, how bad the stock market is, recessions, bear markets, the Fed, blah blah blah.

I don't understand. What's everyone so angry about?

Stocks continue to do well. In fact, the back half of this year has been one of the better ones that we've ever seen.

Look how well most sectors have done since the market bottomed in June: