In a note published on Saturday, we briefly outlined what took place over the weekend, a $700B total market-cap decline that saw most crypto assets fall over 25% on an intraday basis.
As we'll cover in this week's report, we're on the sidelines with elevated cash positions. Risks still linger for long positions right now--we're waiting for a higher-conviction entry.
Here's a quick summary of what took place over the weekend:
I can't help but notice the similarities between the Bitcoin Crash we just saw and what happened to stocks in 1987.
You guys following me for a while know I'm not big on analogs. Every market environment is different.
But history does help us put together a roadmap. We're all humans in this endeavor after all. And that certainly doesn't change, even if we are talking about Crypto and not stocks, 2021 and not 1987.
For you guys who are new to markets I encourage you to study the past. Learn about prior cycles and what happened.
These are great lessons. I promise you.
The US Stock market was booming in the 1980s, after doing nothing for decades since topping out in the mid-1960s.
Stocks were rolling. They had meme stocks and reddit back then too. They were just called other things like Junk Bonds and Corporate Raiders.
With the volatility experienced over the last 24 hours, we thought we'd provide a quick update on what's taken place, and how we're approaching the market right now.
At its peak, the total crypto market cap lost $700B in a space of less than 24 hours, equating to an aggregate 26% decline. In this same period, over 400,000 traders and $2.5B worth of funds were liquidated, making this the most violent unwind we've seen since the May crash.
As we've demonstrated, investors' on-chain buying regime remains intact, so, when these headwinds from traditional markets ease, the bias looks to be higher for Bitcoin and the overall asset class looking out on an intermediate to long-term horizon.
But, until that happens, we anticipate some more choppy action in the near term.
We publish our thoughts on traditional markets every day, but let's quickly summarize a handful of key indexes we're watching right now.
For every asset you own, it's essential to understand its drivers.
We do this all the time when looking at the components of ETFs and funds and evaluating intermarket correlations, and crypto shouldn't be any different.
As we outlined in yesterday's note, the recently observed increased correlation between Bitcoin and legacy markets is something to be mindful of in the near term.
Volatility in the macro environment is likely to be a headwind for most major crypto assets in the coming weeks.
Given the recent volatility over the last few hours, we wanted to quickly send this update ahead of the recording of our weekly conference call to detail what's taken place and to discuss our approach to lower time frames right now.
The most likely selling event would be driven by derivative volatility through a cascading of long liquidation forced selling pressure. There is certainly a possibility this could take place, with funding still pointing to bullish positioning from speculators, but it looks unlikely with the strength of spot flows supporting the market right now.
This is primarily where we've seen the selling pressure take place, with over $750M of liquidations experienced over the last 24 hours. As much as on-chain spot-buying drives long-term cycles, the derivative markets ultimately get the final say for lower time frames.