While updating our Canadian Chartbooks this weekend, I noticed a few that stood out as offering well-defined opportunities where the reward/risk is skewed in our favor. This short post will outline these names and levels, but members can view all of our Canadian Universe by clicking here.
There aren't many stocks in Canada hitting all-time highs right now, but Rogers Communications is one of them. It's a leading stock in a strong sector, so as long as it's above 68.70, we want to be long with an upside objective of 95.25.
We've been looking for breadth and momentum divergences to be confirmed both in the US and globally to mark the start of "the bottom" in equities as an asset class, so today I want to highlight the breadth of one sector which provides perspective on the current market environment.
Momentum and breadth diverged slightly in the major indices and many global markets, leading to a short-term bounce that's been sold into so far. Today I want to look at sector breadth to highlight the extent of the weakness under the surface and outline what we're watching for if/when prices retest their late October, and potentially Q1 lows.
Now that we've gotten a decent bounce, many are asking what the next directional move in the market is going to be. In this post we'll outline why we think that Financials and Smallcaps are the areas to watch for clues.
As a result of the labor intensive process needed to maintain the Chartbook Notes and their lack of use by the majority of members, we have decided to discontinue this feature. We will be adding new tools and functionality to replace it by the end of the quarter. In the meantime if any of the charts in the Chartbook are unclear and you need further clarification, please feel free to contact us and we'll get back to you within 24 hours. Thank you in advance for your patience as we make these improvements to the site.
In June we made some major changes to the format of our Chartbooks based on your feedback and today we're happy to introduce some new changes that we think are going to be very helpful for us as we maintain them and for you all as you use them in your analysis.
The TSX Composite is down roughly 6.75% year-to-date, with stocks getting hit hard since their July 13th, 2018 high. Only one sector is positive over that time period, but I think its recent action gives us a really good perspective on the type of market environment we're in.
Counter-trend trades are lower probability by nature, which means risk management is vital both when they work and when they don't. Taking the loss and reevaluating when the trade thesis is invalidated is something most traders think about, but managing risk on a trade that begins to work right away is just as important and not discussed as often.
Today I want to look at the importance of managing positions that begin working right away, so that we can avoid winning trades turning into losers.
Small-caps have been lagging for most of the year with that trend really accelerating in May, posing a major headwind for the broader market. One thing we were looking for before putting cash to work on the long side was a sign(s) of risk appetite for stocks, which we're seeing for the first time in a while. The question now is will it last and how does it affect our portfolios?
I've just updated the Monthly Chartbook, and although October was a rough month for the equity market, our opinions really haven't changed all that much from last month in terms of trend and risk management levels. With that being said, I want to use this post to highlight a few things that stuck out to me.
The last two months have not been kind to India's stock market, which is why we've been approaching it from a more neutral perspective for most of that time. Although big selloffs are never fun, the progression of this trend from its start to now has been pretty orderly.
We want to use this post to lay out that progression for educational purposes, as well as update our views on the market now.
