As we head into 2020, we start from scratch with our Q4 playbook and outline our thoughts on every asset class and our plan to profit in the quarter (and year) ahead.
Part 1 of this playbook will cover our macro view, touching on Equities, Commodities, Currencies, and Rates.
Part 2 of this playbook will delve deeper into Indian Equities, going sector by sector to identify the trends that matter.
Part 3 of this playbook will outline the individual stocks we want to be buying and selling within the context of today's environment.
Typically on Tuesdays, I post a Mystery Chart, but I expect participation to be lacking this week and I've not found a chart I think is worthy of the exercise...I don't want to make it too easy on you guys.
Instead, I want to look at a few charts that are all suggesting we may be due for a period of consolidation over the next few weeks.
As a result, we've been focusing on the stocks showing relative strength...making money on the long side by sticking with the names that continue to trend, and playing the short side when the reward/risk is ridiculously skewed in our favor.
Unfortunately, it looks like we're going to close out the year/decade with the same gameplan as charts like the one below are a symptom of the weak breadth problem India's had for two years.
It's been a while since we've issued a Precious Metals update, so today we wanted to reiterate our risk management levels and targets on both the weekly and daily timeframes.
As we head into year end there's a lot going on in markets, particularly on the macro and intermarket front.
With that being said, I gotta give the people what they want so today's Chart of The Week is going to focus on a trade setting up in one of 2019's most controversial stocks...Beyond Meat.
When we talk about Equities, we need to think about them holistically as an asset class as opposed to simply focusing on the individual stock or sector or index we're looking at.
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
Mobile Payment stocks have been a key part of our focus on the Technology theme taking place across various sectors of the market.
Since the summer the space has cooled off a bit but is back at levels where it would make sense for the trend to reaccelerate to the upside.
Here's the Mobile Payments ETF vs S&P 500 ratio (IPAY/SPY) pulling back to trendline support. This looks like a normal pullback within a long-term uptrend, however, our concern is that momentum got oversold for the first time since mid-2016.
The strongest uptrends do not get oversold, but unfortunately, this one has so we need to watch if prices bounce from this level and resume their uptrend (preferably getting overbought once again) or if they roll over through support and make fresh lows.
