My presentation at Chart Summit 2019 focused on market breadth and how we like to keep our process of looking at the subject pretty simple.
While that presentation covered a number of our methods of measuring the market's internals, in this post I want to share some stats we pulled this weekend that help provide some valuable context around the market's rally from the December 24th lows.
The table below outlines the major US Indexes we cover with performance stats from important inflection points: The January 2018 highs, the September 2018 peak, and the December 24th low.
We also have some additional stats listed like percentage below 52-week high and above 52-week low, days since those events occurred, whether the daily RSI reading is in a bullish or bearish range, and whether prices are above their 200-day moving average.
The columns we want to pay attention to for now are the first three.
Throughout the week we've been raising some caution flags about the short-term direction of Equities (here, here, and here).
Now that we're seeing some downside follow-through for the first time since December, I wanted to outline a few more potential short setups on an absolute and relative basis.
First let's start with why I'm looking at these sub-sectors to begin with.
The S&P Midcap 400 Consumer Discretionary is one of the cleanest charts I see out there on an absolute basis, with well-defined risk and reward/risk clearly skewed in favor of the bulls. Since there's no ETF to trade this, I had to look through some of the individual components to see how we can best express this thesis in the market.
Last night I was working on an International and Fixed Income ETF Report that went out to our Institutional Clients, but I wanted to highlight an important theme that I saw during my analysis.
In our February Conference Call we outlined the potential for some mean reversion in the Mid and Smallcap Indexes as they retested their 2018 lows, as well as the implications of a breadth and momentum improvement if we got it. We did, so let's take a look and see what it means.
In our "Free Chart of The Week" we posed the question whether or not we've seen the end of the Mid/Small-Cap decline and presented some compelling breadth and momentum data.
This post is going to outline all of the "big picture" evidence that's currently available and explain why we think the foundation has been laid for stocks to carve out a long-term bottom.
The market has been a one way street since late December, but last week we put our our first short ideas since Q4 and Sunday night we wrote about some near-term risks that were emerging. Things are potentially changing.
At the Index level things are a hot mess, but under the surface we're starting to see traffic moving in both directions...and that's perfectly normal! Stocks go up and down. Let's take a look at what we're seeing.
In late December I highlighted a few things from a weekend of charting that suggested improving risk appetite in Equities, one of which was a potential bottom in Crude Oil. Today I'm seeing the opposite, so I want to look at the near-term risk Crude Oil poses along with a few other things.
Today we got new Monthly Candlesticks and while updating the chartbook for our Premium Members, I couldn't help but think the chart below describes the environment we're currently in quite well.
Today we got new Monthly Candlesticks. We wrote a free post on the biggest theme from this month, but this post will go through a few more charts that stood out.