And it would be foolish to ignore it. So we're doing the opposite. We're leaning in and pressing our bets.
Look at the Small-cap Indexes both making new all-time highs. The S&P600 Small-cap Index and Russell2000 Small-cap Index are completing multi-year bases and just beginning their next leg higher:
Another major base being completed right now is in the Dow Jones Transportation Average.
We had seen the strength in Logistics stocks, Marine Shippers and even resiliency among Railroads and Truckers. It was really just the Airline stocks that needed to stop falling.
And that's precisely what happened.
Look at the new all-time highs in the Dow Transports:
Keep in mind that while we're continuing to see more and more of the most important indexes breaking out to new all-time highs, the usual suspects are also still doing their thing.
Look at the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 both hitting new all-time highs, again.
All of this strength in the S&P500 and Nasdaq100 is coming at a time where...
How many people do you know have Chinese stocks as the biggest winner of the Trump landslide victory?
I don't anyone, and I talk to a lot of people.
Traders and Investors are simply NOT positioned for it.
They're all just assuming Trump is going to be bad for Chinese stocks, with tariffs and rocket beef and whatever else....
I think it's great. We're happy to take the other side of their (already priced in) pessimistic views.
Here is the CSI 300 Index, which is basically the S&P500 of China. Look at the double bottom, followed by the most violent momentum thrust in the history of Chinese equities, and now the consolidation post election.
Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday of the year. It's not even close.
So from the bottom of my heart, THANK YOU for all of your support over the years. You have no idea how much you mean to me and how appreciative we are for all the emails, comments, feedback and love that you gave us throughout 2024 and all of the years before that.
Seriously. Thank you.
Thanksgiving to me means Family, Friends, Football, Red Burgundy and Good Eats.
I know there are a few unfortunate souls out there who don't like Turkey. So if you're one of those, I can tell you for a fact, that it's only because you haven't had my Turkey yet!
You're invited next year.
I love Thanksgiving so much that we celebrate it at least one or two more times throughout the year, once in the Spring and probably one more time in early September.
Don't come at me with "Turkey isn't good". Maybe your turkey might not be great, but for the rest of us who know how to prepare it properly, there are few meals throughout the year that are as good as this one!
Facts only.
And so speaking of facts, the thing that I am most grateful this year, from an...
The stock market is on fire and everyone is making money.
But are we making enough money, considering just how good things have been?
Let me rewind for a second. Do you remember all the promises about a recession that was definitely coming? The yield curve. The money printing. Trump is literally Hitler???
We were even told that we would get a credit crisis of some kind. Maybe even another black Monday...
But all we got instead was one of the greatest years for the stock market in American history.
Here's a chart from our pals over at Goldman Sachs showing this year's performance compared to all the other years over the past century.
It's hard to find a better year for investors:
And this is a good lesson for all of us, myself included.
Even though we've been pounding the table this entire bull market to buy stocks and be as aggressive as possible, it's a nice reminder that we should absolutely focus on price behavior, particularly when sentiment is this far removed from reality.
While stocks have been putting up historic returns, the gloom...
For example, your bear market strategies are probably not going to be great during a bull market. Your trend following strategies are probably not going to work too well in rangebound markets. Your...
A funny thing happened after Donald Trump won the U.S. Election by a landslide....
Everyone just assumed it would be bad for Solar stocks.
And it was, for a moment anyway...
But when everyone just assumes a specific outcome, and everyone is already positioned for that, we love to take the other side as that positioning unwinds.
Remember, it's not the fundamentals that drive asset prices. It's positioning, and the unwinds in extreme positioning that moves asset prices the most violently.
The latest example of this market anomaly is in Solar. Notice how during this sell-off, Momentum never reached oversold conditions.
Oversold conditions are characteristics of downtrends.
Momentum is suggesting that Solar is NOT in one of those...
And when you look at the largest component of the Solar Index, the set up is so clean.
$FSLR has retraced slightly more than 61.8% of the entire rally this year...
If First Solar can recover here and get back into the 200s, then the squeeze is on.
And when you have a setup like this, the goal is to make as much money as possible.
If you're not making a lot of money in this Bull Market then you're doing it wrong.
When it's money making time, the idea is to make as much money as possible to be able to withstand those periods where it's "money keeping" time.
Tuesday @ 4PM ET I will be hosting a LIVE event with Steve Strazza to walk through the Breakout Multiplier Strategy that everyone is talking about. I've never seen something work this well, this consistently in my entire career.
The underperformance from Technology stocks continues.
And keep in mind that you've been seeing it in Large-caps for most of this year, but you've been seeing the underperformance from Small-cap Technology for over 18 months.
Small-cap Tech peaked in the summer of 2023 relative to the rest of the small-caps:
It's really been a disappointment for Technology investors.
Granted, there are Tech stocks working, but they are few and far between, compared to what we have seen in the past.
Look at the returns of these Technology ETFs relative to the performance in Bitcoin over the past month:
If we want to own "Technology", then I think there are better places to do that than buying the Tech ETFs or the indexes in general.
I think we want to pick our spots
In the latest Trade Alert to members of ASC Crypto, the best Crypto Miners, which are NOT considered "Technology", are highlighted with details for best entry and exits.
They are categorized as "Capital Markets". And there were multiple trade alerts this...