With the Stock Market making new all-time highs every month, you would think that American consumers would be a little more optimistic.

You would think...

The S&P500 keeps hitting new all-time highs. Same for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq100.

More recently the S&P600 Small-caps, Dow Jones Transportation Average and Bitcoin all joined the New All-time highs list.

And yet...

Sentiment is still way down in the dumps.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data goes all the way back to the 1950s. So this isn't some kind of random johnny-come-lately poll.

There's real data here that reiterates how bull markets end with too much optimism, but thrive throughout periods with too much pessimism.

Bitcoin just broke out to new all-time highs. The new bull market in Crypto is alive and well.

BTC actually closed yesterday at the highest level in history, and now has a market cap of over $1.5 Trillion.

For perspective, there are only 5 companies in the S&P500 that are worth more that Bitcoin: Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet and Amazon.

Every other stock is worth less than Bitcoin. As we say around here, Bitcoin is the 8th component of the "Magnificent 8".

But as we know from prior cycles, as well as Bitcoin performs, it doesn't even come close to the real winners.

Remember the last Crypto Bull Market? DogeCoin rallied 37,000% in a little over a year to reach an $85 Billion market-cap:

The goal this cycle is to catch moves like this.

And we're already seeing it.

Dog Wif Hat recently rallied 7000% in just 3 months to reach a market-cap of $4.5 Billion:

The market has spoken.

It's only a bubble if it's going up and they don't own enough of it, or any at all.

They only call things bubbles when they have a hard time understanding why prices are doing what they're doing.

As someone who studies human behavior every single day, I can tell you with a high degree of confidence that 99.9% of people who call things bubbles haven't actually done any of the work required to determine whether something is in a bubble or not.

And that's the key thing here.

There is a huge arbitrage between the people who put in the work, and actually take the time to analyze markets using real data, and those who are too busy doing other things to truly have an honest opinion about whether a particular period of time is, in fact, a bubble.

Bubbles, as those of us with common sense know, are incredibly rare, by definition.

So when someone calls something a bubble, they are almost certainly wrong about that, or in most cases, just making it up because they don't know how else to describe certain market behaviors that they can't wrap their heads around.

The market has spoken.

They either love Donald Trump as your President. Or maybe it's that they're just happy the election is over.

Either way, this consolidation has now resolved in the direction of the underlying trend: Up.

In fact, yesterday we saw the most amount of stocks on the NYSE hitting new 52-week highs that we've seen in years.

Breadth expansion is not evidence of deteriorating market participation. It's by definition, the exact opposite of that.

More and more stocks and sectors making new highs is something you historically see in bull markets. So this is perfectly normal.

As expected, Trump won by landslide. It was never even close. 

The public markets and the betting markets had it right. 

The pollsters either got it wrong or they just lied to you. But neither of those is acceptable.

I never trusted those weirdos anyway, because why would I?

The way I learned it was that it's not about what they say, but about what they do. Money talks. And the money was right again.

In this case, the market even underestimated the wide margin of victory in last night's election. And the markets have adjusted accordingly.

Dow Futures are up another 1200 points this morning, after putting up a 500 spot during yesterday's session. 

Bitcoin is up 5000 points to new all-time highs this morning

Tesla is up 12% and the Trump SPAC $DJT is up 30%.

So even through the betting markets got the President right, the Tradfi markets hadn't quite priced it all in yet, as we're seeing over the past 24 hours.

Here's the thing: None of us know what the market is going to do. That's the beauty of all this. We are working with incomplete information. And we know that going in. It's ok. 

We're entering the final stretch of the year.

The market is a discounting mechanism and already looking forward beyond the election and into Q1 2025.

We know. And that's why we had our LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session last night. These are the sectors and stocks we're buying right now, and arguably even more importantly, which sectors and stocks we're selling.

Jeff Macke is the person I go to when it comes to all things Retail and Consumer Brands. He's been doing this longer and better than anyone else I can think of. 

He joined us Thursday night LIVE for Amazon and Apple's earnings. I couldn't imagine trying to understand what was going on without Jeff giving us the play-by-play and color commentary.

Why does it seem like every time I remind a group of people about the underperformance from Technology stocks, they're always surprised to hear it.

It's like they don't even know that Large-cap Tech stocks have been underperforming for most of the year, and Small-cap Tech has been underperforming for 18 months.

Is this not common knowledge?

Bitcoin is moving this week and is already working on a breakout to new all-time highs.

Amazon reports earnings this Thursday, and is also attempting to break out above its prior cycle's peak to go on to new all-time highs.

Apple already broke out above its 2021 top, and has already been making new all-time highs for months. 

Apple's breakout and extension to new highs, in my opinion, is setting the stage for Amazon and Bitcoin to do the same.

This is NOT a political post.

So if you're one of these sensitive types who is just too mentally weak to put your politics aside when making decisions about the market, then you're in the wrong place Karen. 

For those of you who can be adults and actually focus on data and facts, here are some thoughts that might help you put the next couple of weeks in perspective.

At this point, I think it's pretty clear that the market has fully priced in a second trump presidency.

Here's a look at the betting markets showing the red line (trump) moving very aggressively to the upper right of the chart, while the blue line (harris) has been moving to the lower right of the chart.

The best 3 month period of the year begins this week.

We know this.

But to me, the bigger question is how stocks did during what is historically the worst time of the year?

Remember how September and October are supposed to be terrible for stocks?

Well they weren't.

In fact, stocks rallied during September and October. All the major U.S. indexes were up.

Now we enter the Best 3 months: November - January. 

Here's what that looks like:

In 2015 I was an entrepreneur, had my last knee surgery, and was still riding professionally from time to time—until my body finally gave out. 

I was also on the verge of starting my own fund while working for another one. 

In other words, I was busy.

My trading signals back then were based on 10-month highs which reflects how busy I was. 

We saw a new 10-month high by the end of the year, and that marked the beginning of one of the most legendary trends in financial history.