I have some personal news to share with you.

This announcement is 15 years in the making. And I’m grateful to all of you that I’m able to make it. 

Ladies and gentlemen, 2024 was my last year as Chief Market Strategist at All Star Charts Research.

Many of you were with me when I started writing a blog from my apartment in New York City in 2010. I was 28 years old then – just a kid trying to figure it out.

You were with me too when we turned the blog into a research company. We’ve added some of the top technicians in the game today to our team.

And All Star Charts is now one of the greatest technical analysis research companies in the history of the stock market.

I’m really proud of what we’ve built together. The team that I’ve assembled has helped me make decisions about what I do with my money for many years.

So I’m equally proud to share that Steve Strazza – my right-hand man and the Director of Research for the last five years – was named Chief Market Strategist at Allstarcharts earlier this year.

Steve has played an instrumental role in our success at All Star Charts. No single person on Earth is more qualified to take...

I'll be back from a nice family vacation later today and will be LIVE on The Morning Show Friday morning.

Miami is fantastic this time of year. I highly recommend a good vacation, if that's something that you can afford to do.

There was a time in my life that I couldn't afford this kind of thing, so it makes me appreciate it so much more. Many of you already understand this. Some of you will one day.

I wanted to check in and share a few things I've been thinking about while I've been away this week.

One thing that certainly stands out is just how great it is to stay off twitter while you're way with your family.

If you want to make sure you're a bad father, one way to solidify that is to spend all your time tweeting during family vacations. 

I kid. But this is definitely a luxury that I couldn't understand in my younger days. 

There is an incredible team at...

It's been a great week down in Miami visiting family.

We had our first child in the middle of covid, and then had twins 2 years ago. So traveling hasn't exactly been at the top of the priority list, like it used to be for us before kids.

In fact, this is actually the first time I've come back home to Miami with my entire family, including all 3 kids. 

It's been awesome.

Sunday night I got to sneak out after the kids went to bed and met Steve Strazza for sushi at a new spot on Brickell.

I've also hung out with old high school buddies and cousins. I don't get to do these things as much as I used to back in the day.

This morning I wanted to pass along two charts that I think all investors need to keep front and center right now. 

These charts, in my opinion, literally define this bull market, and whether or not it's over, like we all keep being told it is.

We call this behavior: "Polarity".

It's when former resistance turns into support. In other words, where there were more sellers than buyers (at the prior cycle's peak), there are now (so far) more buyers that sellers.

You're seeing this polarity play out in...

I wanted to go back old school today.

I'm in Miami this week, where I grew up, visiting family and I'm feeling nostalgic. 

So I wanted to share a chart that I've kept with me for a long long time. I even used the same Stockcharts.com chart, that I originally annotated a handful of cycles ago, so you can see just how long I've had this one with me.

We're looking at the percentage of stocks on the NYSE that are above their 200 day moving average.

The idea here is that we are NOT interested in buying the indexes on their way down below 20% of constituents above their 200 day.

The goal during these times is to buy them on the way back up. 

I've been having this debate with some of the world's top portfolio managers and strategists for over the past 2 decades.

Some of these arguments have even gotten pretty heated throughout these cycles. I remember one private back and forth during the late 2018 period where the strategist was pounding the table about the 20% level, while I was much more focused on the 15% mark.

Here's the answer. Or at least, here's my answer:

The best...

What's working in this market?

What's not selling off as much as you'd think it would be?

These are the types of questions I like to ask during environments like this.

I've seen this many times before. I can tell you that the assets showing relative strength in this market will likely be the leaders during the next recovery.

In the meantime, below overhead supply is still the key theme right now, particularly for U.S. equities.

It has been since the Dow and S&P500 lost their key levels and were unable to reclaim them. Remember the Nasdaq100...

Today is celebration! 

Not only do we get a fresh batch of Monthly Candlesticks today at the close, but we also get all the quarterly data at the same time. 

This kind of party only happens 4 times a year - where we get the monthlies and the quarterlies on the same day.

That day is today. 

As we head into Q2 of 2025, I think the big theme here is Overhead supply in major U.S. Indexes and massive underperformance from U.S. Technology.

See U.S. Technology and High Beta hitting new 22-month relative lows and also check out:...

We talk a lot about rotation around here. But there isn't anywhere that it's as pronounced as in U.S. stocks compared to everything else.

This week we talked about U.S. Technology and High Beta hitting new 22-month relative lows. 

Keep in mind, that despite so many things working this year, the exposure that U.S. Indexes have to American Tech stocks is off the charts. 

You simply don't have any American Mega-cap Tech stocks in Europe (FEZ), which is up over 14.5% this quarter. Latin America (ILF) and Africa (AFK) are each up 13.5% this quarter. And Chinese Internet (KWEB) is up 20%. 

These are historic returns to start the year. And I'm not cherry picking here. We're literally talking about every continent except North America. 

Meanwhile, the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq100 are all...

There are so many things working this year. American Growth stocks are just not on the list.

The underperformance from this group is on another level. These are things that haven't been seen in 20 years.

Look at U.S. Technology hitting new cycle lows relative to the S&P500. The struggle has been real since last summer. And the selling has not slowed down.

Also notice how the High Beta Index is hitting new lows relative to Low Volatility.

Over half the S&P500 High Beta Index is in Technology.

Berkshire Hathaway, for example, which is hitting new all-time highs, is one of the largest component of the Low Volatility Index.

It's the High Beta stuff - Tech and Consumer Discretionary, that's leading the way lower in the United States.

Here is the Semiconductors Index peaking last summer relative to the S&P500 "in the middle of an AI Revolution" lol. 

AI revolution. More like an AI hallucination...

There are so many things working in this market.

Every single sector in the U.S. is either flat or up in 2025, except for Technology and Consumer Discretionary which are both down double digits this...

Tesla is ripping this morning, up 10% so far on news that the tampon guy gets his rocks off when TSLA stock falls in price. 

This is a former Vice Presidential Candidate up on stage rooting against an American institution that employs over 125,000 Americans. 

What a loser.

Fortunately, he did his little dance right at the 61.8% retracement of the entire TSLA rally off the late 2022 lows. 

It was almost too perfect. 

We obviously put on the trade.

To not buy Tesla on that kind of silliness would have been irresponsible. 

So far so good.

Meanwhile, speaking of crazies, the sentiment towards Michael Saylor has also spiked towards the pessimistic side.

I love that.

This was a beautiful bear trap:

We discussed all the details on the entry for the Tesla trade and...

I hope you're having a nice weekend.

Before I head out for the day I wanted to share a few thoughts about the market and what I'm seeing out there.

This week I laid out all my thoughts and favorite trades during our LIVE Conference Call. So today's note is about a few other things I didn't talk about on the call. 

The first one is this big 2100 level in Ethereum. Remember that despite all the underperformance from this one, ETH still carries a $240 Billion market-cap and is still the 2nd largest token on the planet.

If we're back above last year's lows, I would really start to get interested in this one. Look for the Bitcoin dominance to come off if Ethereum starts to outperform again. ETH can really help the Alts...

We don't have bull markets without Financials. It's just how the market works, both in the United States and Internationally. 

European Banks keep ripping. Japanese Banks keep ripping.

And you're seeing it in the United States as well. Berkshire Hathaway is the largest component of the S&P Financials Index, and BRKA just went out at new all-time highs again this week.

Here are the exchanges, still dominating as well. Both the CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are hitting new all-time highs:

If this is your first bull market, I would encourage you to go back and study former bull markets throughout history. 

You'll notice similar behavior from Financials.

It's when things are making a turn for the bad that Financials really struggle.

We're currently seeing the opposite.

By my work, it's really the more "Value" oriented areas of the market that keep dominating returns, while the "Growth" areas have corrected.

Here is a list of the very best of the biggest companies in America. Notice all the Financials, Industrials, Healthcare and Energy.

This list is sorted by relative strength and the "...

It's happening.

Are you paying attention?

The best is when you're already moving on a position, and then new extremes in sentiment confirm the opportunity that you had already identified.

This is the setup currently in place for shares of Tesla stock.

Last week I told you how I had 2 separate experiences with normies who were telling me how much they hated Elon Musk. This was on an unsolicited basis. I didn't even ask.

See: The Libs Hate Elon & Tesla

It happened twice. In the same weekend. Civilians on both occasions.

So we immediately laid out the trade for Premium Members of ASC Research. You can access the...