Technology stocks have been quite the laggard for some time. In fact, the Large-cap Technology Index ($XLK) is actually down since mid-July.
Sector Rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market. How many times have you heard me say that?
And this cycle is no different. They used to tell me that it was only the Tech stocks that were driving this bull market, and nothing else what's working.
Here we are with the S&P500 hitting new all-time highs literally every single month, and Technology stocks are actually down since July.
Donald Trump gets inaugurated today as the next president of the United States.
This comes after a historic republican landslide that betting markets had absolutely correct going into the election.
Anyone who thought it was 4 guys in a room manipulating the markets were actually just hoping that was the case, because they didn't like what the betting markets were saying.
Tough shit.
You ignored the market and it cost you.
Bitcoin is making new all-time highs this morning as the first Publicly Pro-Crypto President in history is about to take office.
You don't have to like the guy. In fact, you can hate Trump. Or love him. It doesn't matter when it comes to how we're going to profit from it.
And that's what this is all about.
If you let your politics influence your decision making in the market, you're an extremist. And there's no room for extremism in turning a profit.
Separate the two, or it will not end well. That I promise you.
This is a bull market for stocks. If you're not making money in this environment, then you should probably reevaluate your strategies.
I know for a fact that I've witnessed individuals, who are clearly mentally ill, fight this historic rally pretending that there's some kind of epic credit crisis coming any day now (for over 2 years lol).
Whether it's fake breadth deterioration, or the "yen carry trade", or lies about Gold sending some kind of warning, or the Fed ruining everything, or small-caps underperforming, or Trump and his Magas.
It's always something.
These people will make up anything in their heads, no matter how outrageous, in order to justify poor decisions. Their egos are too fragile.
Good.
It might be a little sad to have to watch them ruin their lives. But it's great for us who recognize their vulnerabilities and have chosen to just profit from it all instead.
You see, when I hear credit crisis, I naturally look at credit spreads to see what's going on.
The answer is: NOTHING.
Still nothing...
Credit spreads are as tight as they've been this entire bull market:
If you want to know what's moving markets this week, and how we're thinking about profiting from it, then the Morning Show is for you!
Today's guest is Jay Woods, New York Stock Exchange Floor Governor and Chief Global Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. He messaged me that he disagrees with my take on the market so we're about to debate LIVE on the show. You're not going to want to miss this one!
If you want to know what's moving markets this week, and how we're thinking about profiting from it, then the Morning Show is for you!
Today's guest is fellow twin-boy dad Todd Gordon, Portfolio Manager at Inside Edge Capital. Todd is an old pal, veteran trader and world class skier. You're not going to want to miss this conversation!
The Mötley Crüe song title comes to mind: Same Ol' Situation.
It's always the same questions. Every bull market.
How much higher can stocks possibly go? Was that last high the top? Why is the economy not as strong as the stock market?
That's the thing. We want to pay attention to what's happening around us. Because we've seen it before and we'll see it again. It's just humans being humans.
I like to turn to the data and weigh the evidence so we can try to make the most informed decisions possible.
The way I see it, this has been a bull market for quite some time, well into year 3 now. Whenever a lagging sector has been most vulnerable to break down from a major top, the opposite has happened.
We're in the 3rd year of a bull market and sector rotation continues to be a dominant theme that's driving stock prices higher, and probably more importantly, not allowing them to go lower.
Also during corrections, you regularly see rotation into the more defensive stocks, like Consumer Staples. You don't have that either. In fact, Consumer Staples just closed at new all-time lows relative to the S&P500.
While some sectors and industry groups have been taking a breather, after these historic runs, other stocks have been catching a bid - things like Medical Equipment, Airlines and now Energy stocks.
The one constant, however, is the rotation OUT of Consumer Staples.
This defensive sector consistently outperforms when stocks are under pressure, and when it's a less than ideal environment to be putting risk on in equities.
This is the opposite of that.
Look at the new all-time lows for Consumer Staples relative to the S&P500: