From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

"Sell the two… Utah! Sell the two!"

I’ve parroted my bond outlook during internal meetings and across our Slack channels in recent weeks, partly in jest but mostly to highlight the underlying uptrend in rates. 

Honestly, I’m not crazy about selling the short end of the curve, though I believe there’s a trade there.

Instead, there are far better opportunities with longer-duration bonds.

Shorting bonds isn’t the most popular play with the Fed and the dollar and the CPI… 

But that makes me like this trade even more, especially when I put the headlines and the dominant narrative aside and simply focus on the charts…

Check out the 10-year yield $TNX:

[10/5: updated stop to 8.50]

I’m traveling throughout Southeast Asia — to eight different countries — with my All Star Charts analyst Steve Strazza, giving presentations at local Chartered Market Technicians (CMT) Association events, meeting local traders, enjoying native cuisines, and just marveling about the similarities we traders from different corners of the world all share.

So for the rest of the month of July, I’m going to cut the preamble and get right to the action for you guys.

As such, here’s the setup for the trade I’ll be putting on today:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY has resumed its march toward fresh lows.

It took a less direct route, meandering sideways for the past seven months.

Nevertheless, our roadmap for a DXY breakdown has remained useful.

The EUR/USD is trading above 1.08. And commodity currencies are recapturing their July pivot lows from last summer. 

These are key developments that support further USD weakness, leading us toward today’s breakdown.  

Thanks to sellers taking control of the market, today’s session is offering another critical piece of confirming evidence…

An oversold reading on the 14-day RSI.

Notice DXY never registered an RSI print below 30, even during the strong selloff last fall.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street.

These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world.

Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats.

In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we're curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money."

Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as The Hall of Famers, The Minor Leaguers, and The 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

While many investors have been focused on arbitrary lagging indicators like the economy, we rather keep our attention on reality.

We're grown adults. We don't need bedtime stories to go to sleep at night. So fairytales about recessions, or inflations, or bidens are just not anything we're interested in.

We get paid to sell things at higher prices than where we buy them.

And the bet we've been making for a long time is that the negative correlation between the US Dollar and stocks will remain in place.

That bet has paid off handsomely for us and anyone listening.

So as investors we all have a choice. Do we bet that the correlation is all of a sudden going to change tomorrow? Or do we bet that things just remain the same?

Here is the US Dollar Index consolidating in what appears to be a classic continuation pattern, within an ongoing downtrend:

The two major catalysts that will propel gold to new all-time highs are veering in different directions. 

US real yields are challenging fresh decade highs (not ideal for a gold rally) while the dollar is pressing against its year-to-date lows.

A breakdown in the US dollar index $DXY would no doubt send gold bugs dancing in the streets everywhere around the world.

I believe a weaker dollar remains critical to the next secular uptrend in Gold. But do real yields need to roll over as well? 

I’m leaning toward no. Here’s why…

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under The Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended July 7, 2023. We publish this report on a bi-weekly basis, rotating it with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.  

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

We held our July Monthly Strategy Session on Wednesday night. ASC Premium Members can click here to review the recording and the chartbook.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.

This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.