Markets chop sideways most of the time. This has been the reality for forex markets for much of the year.
But that’s starting to change as numerous US dollar pairs reach new 10-month highs. The dollar is taking down crucial levels while the US Dollar Index $DXY retests a year-to-date downtrend line and key former highs.
The peculiar coincidence sets up some potentially critical resolutions for these USD pairs.
If they fail, the dollar rally is likely over.
If they hold and additional USD breakouts materialize, selling pressure will intensify for many risk assets.
As of today, quite a few forex pairs are on the verge of supporting a sustained US dollar rally…
Let’s start with the second largest component of the DXY (13.6%), the US dollar-Japanese yen:
To add to that sentiment shift, here is the our internal sentiment composite which includes data from Individual Investors, Advisories, Active Investment Managers, Volatility and the Options Market.
As you can see last year saw some of the most pessimistic levels in history, giving us one of the greatest buying opportunities we've ever seen.
We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.
For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.
That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.
We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.
To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.
I always laugh at that one, even as I write this note.
That’s probably because I’ve spent the better part of the past twenty years chasing waves – but I don’t share this Hollywood version of a stoner-surfer ethos regarding life.
But I do follow this mindset when it comes to markets…
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.
In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
The Nasdaq100 is already down 4.5% this month. Technology as a sector is down almost 6.5% for August.
But corrections are a choice, not a requirement.
As an investor, you make the choice and decide which assets you want to own and which you do not.
Remember, "Passive Investing" is a lie. There's no such thing. All investors are active. The difference is whether you choose your portfolio holdings, or you let some random index providers make those decisions for you.
But we're all active investors, whether we like it or not. Don't forget that.
So even thought the indexes are messy this quarter, take a look at Energy hitting new 6-month highs this week:
Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.
As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.
Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we're curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.
We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money." Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.
Crude oil and gasoline futures are completing major reversal patterns.
Heating oil is ripping higher.
Natty gas has traders on the edge of their seats (what’s new?) as it heads into a seasonally favorable stretch.
But what about the rest of the commodity space?
Check out the overlay chart of our equal-weight energy index and our equal-weight broad commodity index:
Both averages have followed the same path since the 2020 lows despite a mere 15% weighting toward energy in our broad commodity index.
But energy is pulling away. Oil and gas names are taking on a leadership role among US equities as their underlying commodities confirm by digging in and resolving higher.
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
