For a variety of different factors, we've wanted to tactically be selling stocks all week and buying bonds instead, particularly US Treasury and Municipal Bonds. The weight of the evidence has been pointing to a more defensive rotation and out of risk assets. We listen to the market and act accordingly. Anything else would be irresponsible.

To be clear, longer-term uptrends in stocks and indexes globally are still intact, so far. Our goals, however, are to make money this quarter. We'll worry about next year, next year. We'll worry about the 3rd and 4th quarters when we get there this summer. For now, as we finished up January we're now entering what is historically the worst of the "Best 6 Months of the year", which go from November through April. So stocks going down in February would be perfectly in line with seasonal trends.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Thank you to everyone who responded to this week's mystery chart, I expected it to be a good one and it was.

Most respondents were aggressively selling this one, while others wanted to see a more decisive move before making a decision.

With that as our backdrop, let's take a look at this week's chart. 

I can't believe I'm publishing the 100th Episode of this podcast that I started in the summer of 2017. My first guest ever was Ralph Acampora! I mean, how could it not be right? Since then I've had the privilege of interviewing Portfolio Managers, Traders, Analysts, Best Selling Authors and even a World Series of Poker Champion! People all over the world have approached me how much they've learned from listening to the podcasts. It's been an amazing experience for me all around.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

With our upside price objectives being met across in Equity markets across the globe, we've shifted our focus to buying Bonds and selling Emerging Market stocks with the expectation of a choppy environment for stocks as an asset class over the coming weeks and months.

With that said, just because the indexes may be choppy there will be winners and losers that we can take advantage of long and short.

In light of that, today we're reiterating our view on two pot stocks we outlined weeks ago that are still actionable and uncorrelated with the broader market.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

One of my favorite tasks each week is putting together our "Top 10 Charts" of the week report for Institutional Clients.

This week was very macro and intermarket focused, but one stood out as particularly interesting so I wanted to pass it along.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Given our expectation of a choppy market environment over the coming weeks and months, we're focusing on areas of relative strength/weakness.

Canadian Telecom stocks are hitting new all-time highs on an absolute basis, presenting some new trading opportunities on the long side.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!

We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.

You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

Ok so if you're not caught up with our approach to the market right now, I encourage you to read both "We're Buying Bonds" and "Selling Emerging Markets" from this weekend.

Today I want to talk about the non-randomness of markets. I think the Russell2000 Small-cap Index is a great example to walk through. For one, it helps you understand the way we look at markets, but selfishly it's also great because it reiterates a lot of principles that I want to continue to focus on moving forward. Writing helps. Everyone wins. 

In case you missed it yesterday, we're selling stocks up here and buying bonds.

I tried to outline the levels as best as I could. Let me know if you have any questions!

Quickly today, I just wanted to point out one chart of Emerging Markets that really stands out. Remember this Index is broken down as follows: China 32.40%, South Korea 11.84%, Taiwan 11.71%, India 8.13%, Brazil 6.78%, South Africa 4.25% & Russia 3.84%. 

It's basically 72% Asia and 10% Latin America.

Here's what it looks like:

I like to keep an open mind. When the data suggests getting more aggressive towards stocks, that's what we're going to do. When the data points a more defensive approach, then that's what we'll do too.

We've had a heck of a run in stocks since the summer, and now I think it's time for a break, at least at the index level. Remember, regardless of overall market conditions there will still always be some stocks going up and some going down. In fact, I think Utilities see some outperformance here and I listed which stocks we want to own. So far they're working.

Anyway, so why the new defensive position? Well, the things we said needed to happen for us to pull back are starting to happen. It's really as simple as that.

Let's get into it:

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Thank you to everyone who responded to this week's mystery chart.

No mixed opinions this week, almost everyone saw the pullback into support as a successful breakout retest and was a buyer.

With that as our backdrop, let's take a look at this week's chart. 

In this Episode of Allstarcharts Weekly, Steve and I talk about the newest Sector in America: Communications. Back in 2018, the Index makers took out some of our favorite Technology stocks and put them along with some telecom into this new Index called Communications. With Google and Facebook now representing 40% of this $XLC index, the fact that we're just now breaking out to all-time highs says a lot about the space.