These are the registration details for our Live Mid-month Conference Call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
Our next Live Call will be held on Tuesday January 17th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
In a recent note, I shared performance stats for our All Star Options Paid-to-Play portfolio, and in the time since, I’ve fielded numerous emails/DMs that all ask basically the same question:
How did you earn money in such a challenging market environment and do so with far lower volatility than the indexes?
Rather than responding individually, I thought it would be better for everyone if I just shared my thoughts here. After all, we can all benefit from good ideas, yeah?
I’ll try not to get us lost in the weeds with the mundane tactical maneuvers employed each trading day. Instead, I’ll stick to the high-level concepts which guide my thinking.
These stories allow their mind to wander from busy thoughts into an adventure. It provides a comforting reality and a narrative they can consciously control.
Comically, in this sense, children and investors are more similar than we let on.
It's just that one obtains comfort from an adventurous tale while the other derives solace in news headlines.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this is bad or wrong. I'm just noting its existence.
The vast majority of investors need to understand why a stock is moving rather than solely following technicals and money flow.
A question that keeps coming up to me is why Consumer Staples and Low Volatility stocks are outperforming.
These are normally the types of things you see when stocks in general are under pressure.
This is the kind of rotation you get in bear markets.
But the back half of 2022 was good for stocks. The 4th quarter was great.
Most stocks have been ripping for almost 7 months now. This is NOT the type of environment where Staples and Low Volatility stocks tend to outperform.
And while they might be making new multi-year highs relative to the S&P500, it's pretty easy to outperform an index with so much exposure to growth stocks. So can we even call that 'outperformance'?
With the NFL Playoffs getting underway this weekend (Go Bills!), it's time we put the offense on the field!
I was kicking around a bullish idea in a consumer staples name during our Analyst meeting today. The chart looks great. The setup is good. We can position for a nice potential reward versus the risk we'd incur to put the trade on. Everyone agreed that its probably a good trade.
But... is it aggressive enough?
Answer: No, it's not.
The thinking that emerged from our chat was that risk is back on in the stock market; therefore, we need to get into the most reasonably aggressive names we can. And one of the areas where risk is most definitely "on" is in the homebuilders sector.
If all we did was watch the evening news or listen to the inflation and interest rate scaremongers, we'd reasonably conclude that a long-term and painful bear market for real estate and housing in particular is a slam dunk. No contest.
If a severe real estate bear market was in the cards, would we be seeing homebuilders ripping of their recent lows the way we have over the past couple of months?
