For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it's a custom index or inverted, who knows!
We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.
You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now.Buy,Sell, or Do Nothing?
Wednesday morning I outlined the charts we were watching ahead of the Fed Decision and what we would need to see before getting out of the way and reevaluating our bullish Equities and US Interest Rates thesis.
Today I want to look at those same charts and note what's changed and how we're moving forward.
Tuesday's Mystery Chart received a lot of responses, with most of you were erring on the long side.
Now, let's look at the chart and its related theme.
Here's SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd. attempting to break out above its post-IPO base while the more traditional "banking stocks" are being hit hard. Sure the price action is a bit choppy, but it's not going down like many other stocks in the sector and market.
Click on chart to enlarge view.
The reason this chart stood out to us is that the relative strength is obvious and suggests that these stocks will lead to the upside once the market gains its footing. As long as prices are above their recent lows of 732, the bias is to the upside towards 952.
As part of our Institutional Top 10 Charts report on February 21st, we wrote about why Litecoin was leading the Cryptocurrency regime change.
Several weeks later on April 3rd, we followed-up on that call by noting the improving price action of Bitcoin and Ethereum and suggesting a long-term bottom was likely in for the Crypto space.
Today we're looking at a chart that highlights a major divergence that's plagued the Indian stock market since January 2018.
We've spoken about this topic in the past, but keep drilling it home every few months because it remains one of the key reasons why Indian Equities as an asset class are struggling.
Today will be a "big" day for markets as the Federal Reserve will announce their decision on the new target Federal Funds Rate.
Currently, markets are pricing in a roughly 80% chance of a 25bp cut and a 20% chance of a 50bp cut. This means market participants have assigned 0% odds to rates remaining where they are after today's meeting.
We've been pretty clear over the last few months about where we stand regarding the different asset classes, so there's not much left to do other than wait and see how prices settle by the end of the week.
With that said, here are a few charts we're watching through Friday's close.
Selling continues and now many broader market and sector indices are at or below support, so in this post, we'll look at some of those charts and assess the damage that's been done.
