From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

The "news" is designed to be a distraction for investors.

Earlier in the week, Bitcoin made some noise as the price soared 10% amid rumors of the approval of BlackRock's Spot Bitcoin ETF.

At the height of this speculation, Cointelegraph apologized, stating the rumors were false, resulting in the liquidation of $65 million BTC within minutes.

When we look at the chart, Bitcoin continues to press against the same overhead supply level it’s struggled with all year. It’s really that simple.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

One of the relative trends we must regularly evaluate is the relationship between large-caps and small-caps.

Sometimes large-caps outperform. Other times, it’s the little guys leading the way. 

This ratio tells us which ones we should be focusing on. 

The chart below shows the Russell 1000 Large-Cap ETF (IWB) relative to the Russell 2000 Small-Cap ETF (IWM) breaking out of a monster-basing formation.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Markets have been able to stage a significant rebound off the lows from last week.

After some massive bullish engulfing candles Friday, the major averages - led by mega-cap growth stocks, have exhibited strong follow-through to start the week.

That changed a little today as markets gave back some gains as the dollar and rates ticked higher.

The bottom line is there is still work to do. While stocks appear to have found a tradable low, that doesn't tell us much about where we go from here.

If the dollar and rates hold current levels, things are likely to remain messy.

However, even under this scenario, we think there will be some big winners as we march forward to the end of the year. And all indications from the market suggest most of those winners will be from the tech and growth space.

Let's outline some of our favorites right here, right now.

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

The negative correlation between equities and the dollar remains intact, representing a fundamental piece of the current intermarket puzzle.

When the dollar strengthens, stocks tend to fall under selling pressure. On the flip side, stocks often enjoy strong bull runs when the dollar trends lower.

That's been the case for some time now. 

When we zoom in on this relationship, it becomes clear as day why the dollar should be on the mind of every stock market investor right now.

Below is a 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 Futures and the US Dollar Index over the last week.

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

Banks are considered one of the world's most important industry groups as they provide an excellent overview of the economic environment and overall risk appetite toward markets.

After suffering a deep decline in Q1, prices carved out a tradable low, rebounded, and settled into a well-defined trading range.

However, these laggards continue to be a concern for the financial sector and the broader market as the charts look vulnerable heading into earnings season.

Here we have Money-Center Banks $KBE, Regional Banks $KRE, and Community Banks $QABA, all of which are below their AVWAPS from the May lows:

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

As the market has been sending mixed signals since July, we’re seeking information from our risk appetite indicators to try to gauge the next move.

One of our favorite ways to measure risk appetite is to compare the consumer discretionary sector with consumer staples. This tells us whether market participants are positioning themselves defensively, or embracing risk. 

Discretionary stocks include automobiles, retailers, and homebuilders, among other things. Theoretically, we’re talking about products and services consumers buy with their discretionary incomes. 

Meanwhile, staples are what "consumers" will buy regardless of how bad economic conditions get… things like food, toothpaste, cigarettes, etc.

When this ratio points higher, it illustrates a healthy degree of risk-seeking behavior among investors. Alternatively, when it points downwards, it speaks to a defensive tone and typically occurs during bear markets.

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

Relative strength is one of the most essential tools we employ on a daily basis. 

Analyzing relative trends allows us to determine whether an asset is outperforming a benchmark or its alternatives.

This increases our chances of success as we navigate the markets.

Even though the stock market has been trading sideways since July, the relative trends are very much in favor of technology these days.

Below is the equal-weight Technology Sector (RSPT) breaking out of a 3-year base relative to the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP):

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the Desk of Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

Energy stocks have been the best-performing group thus far during the second half of 2023. However, they have given back some of their gains in recent weeks as selling pressure resurfaces.

With energy indexes rolling over at their old highs yet again, the question we’re asking (and have been asking) is simple… 

What is it going to take for these stocks to finally break out?

Here is a dual-pane chart showing the Equal-Weight Energy Sector testing the upper bounds of a multi-month basing pattern on both absolute and relative terms.