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[Options] Heading South From KC

September 18, 2019

Okay, having a play in mind for Kansas City Southern $KSU made the title of this post low hanging fruit. Captain Obvious, this guy.

Our boy JC here at All Star Charts went shopping this weekend and couldn't help catching a glimpse of the cover of this week's Barron's attempting to instill fear into the hearts of Railroad investors. He, like me, is a natural skeptic of headlines. So he dug into the sector and was not surprised to see price action telling a different story. One of the most compelling charts to me is the one for $KSU and I'm liking the route these tracks are headed.

First off, here's what JC had to say:

The first one that stands out is Kansas City Southern. You guys who have been receiving our work for a long time know how I always point to this one as an underperformer. Well, time heals all doesn’t it? If we’re above the 2013-2014 highs (127), we want to be long $KSU with a target near 197.

One look at this chart and it is hard to be bearish:

Breaking out above major resistance that has stood for nearly six years? That's a train I'm not willing to step in front of. I love buying breakouts like these.

And our good fortune is that volatility is priced in a reasonable range, affording us the chance to buy straight long calls without getting gouged for the opportunity. Yesterday's mild selloff just sweetens the pot.

Here's the Play:

We're buying $KSU March 150 calls for $3.00 or cheaper. This gives us six months for the breakout to build momentum. And if we get anywhere near JC's 197 price target, the profits on this trade will pay for a lot of freight.

As we typically do, we'll close half of our long calls if we get a double. So, if we pay $3.00 for them, we'll be looking to sell half at $6.00 or above, removing all of our original risk capital from the trade. Then we'll hold the rest all the way into March, at which point we'll make a decision whether to close or hold as we approach expiration. In short, if $KSU is trading below 150 in March, leaving our long call strike out-of-the-money, we'll close our remaining position for whatever we can get. If we've above $150, then we'll close our remaining position at the first break of near-term support.

If, however, at any time $KSU closes below $127, our thesis is busted and we'll close our entire position for whatever we can salvage.

~ @chicagosean

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