We've got Nvidia earnings after the bell this afternoon. The feeling I shared to my analysts today -- and they all agreed -- is that if Nvidia disappoints, the likely result will be a small speedbump for the overall stock market. But if investors cheer the Nvidia earnings results, then gas is going to get poured on this bull market.

The Russell 2000 Small Cap ETF $IWM does not have direct exposure to $NVDA, so our risks feel limited on the downside. However, in a resumption of the bull market, small caps have a good chance of ripping to and through new highs.

That's the bet we're making today.

A nearly 3-year-long bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern has whetted my appetite for today's trade.

And a follow-through could deliver a nice dash for cash.

Our last trade idea post was titled "European Vacation." Today's trade is in a name that is most definitely in the vacation theme.

And if you've attempted to book a hotel room in the past year, you know that rates are soaring. This might be bad for budget-sensitive travelers, but it can be bullish for investors.

So let's hedge our travel expenses.

Stocks are ripping in the U.S.

Is Europe next?

Looking at a basket of the fifty biggest names in Europe, we've got a clean level to bet against for a rotation higher. And a volatility picture that offers us an edge to play it.

It's easy to over-complicate things. 

I generally try to avoid that. Today's trade might be the simplest thing I do: follow a trend.

When a chart is going from the bottom left to the upper right, who am I to call a top in something like that? What kind of arrogance must I have to think I'm the one who can call the turn?

Let somebody else be the hero. I'm going to follow the trend until it ends.

During our Analyst meeting this morning, I observed the relative "calm" in the Chinese Large Cap ETF $FXI and how, while down for the day, it is still holding in a range it's been in for over three weeks now. 

And we love how it's holding this range as a healthy consolidation from its late September breakout.

There's nothing about this chart that is bearish to me:

Ok, we're going to head abroad and as far away from election risk as we can.

In fact, we're to head to Sweden for today's trade. Is that far enough away?

As we inch closer to the election, the "change-of-narrative" plays still hold interest to me -- both as hedges to my overall bullish positioning, and as alpha generators.

Today's trade is in a "junky" solar name that has gotten beaten down with the rest of it's sector as investors are pricing in a Trump victory that would be perceived as bearish for the Solar Industry.

But what if a Trump victory results in an inverse "sell the news" type of event and the selling pressure gets lifted from this sector? Or, better yet, what if the pollsters are wrong (it's happened before!) and Harris comes out victorious? Wouldn't that result in an immediate narrative shift for this sector? And if that happens, junky stocks like today's trade could potentially offer a tremendous amount of alpha.

I'm continuing my recent theme of portfolio diversification today with another short position, this time in a stock that should be performing well heading into Halloween and holiday season -- but isn't.

In fact, the chart looks like its got a lot of room to fall if their upcoming earnings report disappoints.

I do not recommend attempting to pick bottoms and tops. It can be a dangerous game. 

Yes, when you occasionally get one right you can make a killing. But we also put ourselves at risk at getting killed. Especially fading short squeezes, and double especially if you're doing it via getting short common stock.

Smart options traders, however, have an advantage here. We can define our risks precisely. We're going to take advantage of this feature with today's trade, a bet on the unexpected.

We had a delta-neutral options position on the books that we stopped out of this week. Thankfully, it was not a big loss. It felt like the right idea, but the wrong instrument.

So today's trade is a similar trade in a stock from the same sector. We're going to take advantage of a possible continued consolidation and get out before their next earnings event.

Perhaps this is just my own personal Waterloo, but there seems to be history of market turbulence whenever I travel and am away from my main trading station.

Next week will be a travel week for me. I'll be attending Stocktoberfest in Coronado Island, back home for one day in the middle of the week, then back on the road heading to Seattle. And this being October, when "surprises" seem most often to occur, I'm a little on edge about my mostly long-leaning portfolio.

So today's trade is a simple bearish bet in a weak name that may offer some cushion if things do get slippery next week.