When analyzing the Gold Mining Sector, I can’t help but think about the 1993 movie Dazed & Confused. One of the more popular lines in the film is the perfect way to explain what is currently happening in today’s market.
In this scene Matthew McConaughey’s character is telling a couple of kids,
You heard about the party being busted right? Not to worry. There is a new fiesta in the making as we speak. It’s at the moon tower. Full kegs. Everybody’s gonna be there. You oughta go….”
In current markets, there was a huge party that got busted in February. But not to worry. There is a new fiesta in the making as we speak. It’s in the gold mining space. Full margin. And if everybody’s gonna be there, we oughta get there first.
So far, we’ve only wanted to own the very best miners with the highest momentum and relative strength readings, like Newmont, for example. But these were the exceptions, not the rule. Now that the Gold Mining Index has broken out, we can expand our horizons and approach the whole space from a broader bullish perspective.
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43 is next, but ultimately I think we get all the way back to 62 and those epic 2011 highs.
The way I tried to explain it to a friend of mine this week was that Gold Miners have organized a killer party: Caterers, band, open bar, magicians, the whole thing. They went all out for this.
What I mean by that is, this party took a long time to plan. You can’t just send out invites and put all this together over night. This is a process. You need like a party planning committee and stuff to do this right.
In fact, this party took almost a decade to organize. We know a lot of people who got tossed around in that mess this whole time, while everyone else was having fun elsewhere. NOW, we’re the ones that show up, a little fashionably late, looking good and refreshed, and ready for a good time.
What’s important to remember here through, is that when you arrive to this party, that you understand who’s already here. There are folks who look like they just went through war. They’ve been organizing this party for so long and have lost so much, both monetarily and emotionally, that they’re punch drunk at this point. They don’t know the difference. They’re not seeing clearly. What’s another keg stand or couple of shots at this point?
This is what it looks like if you were one of these early arrivers over the past decade. You missed out on all the fun at the house down the block.
But let’s remember, that this massive hangover was a result of one of the most epic parties of all time. These guys are legends. Look at the prior decade!
So there is a time and a place for everything, I guess is my point. And right now if you’re asking me where the party is? It’s hard for me not to point to gold miners.
There have been a select few that we’ve liked, and still do, but if $GDX is above 31, I like them long from a much broader perspective.
What do you think? You coming to party with us?