Going through charts this weekend, there are a few things that stood out.
First of all, the biggest company in the world is on pace to easily double in value in 2019. How do you think things are going around here? My bet is pretty darn good:
Meanwhile, sentiment is terrible. The Conference Board data that was released last week showed that more consumers expect stocks to decline than rally in the months ahead. How is that even possible??? lol
When the S&P500 hit new 12 month highs (as it did this week) yet more consumers were bearish than bullish, stocks consistently did very well. After 1 year, the S&P500 was higher every single time, and all but one of those occasions had double digit returns.
The strength in the market is not just a U.S. thing either. Here is the S&P Global 100 Index breaking out to new All-time highs after going nowhere for 21 months:
And we’re seeing some interesting strength in Commodities as well. Here is the more equally-weighted CCI Commodities Index (less Energy than the CRB) doing something it hasn’t done in a while:
Look at Palladium continuing to make new all-time highs. If we’re above 1700, I see no reason not to be long this commodity. Why can’t we see another 1000 points of upside?
And what about Natural Gas? Does this look like a bottom or a top? My bet is from the long side if Natural Gas is above 2.70. If we’re below that, then I don’t want anything to do with it. But I think there’s at least a full point to the upside if we’re above 2.70:
Are you coming to Vegas next week? It’s going to be a lot of fun.
My presentation is on November 9th
Ping me if you’re coming through!