It’s not about a virus or any economic reports. It’s about Credit.
We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again.
Look at last year, for example. By the time the S&P500 finally put in its high in February, everything else had already been falling apart. Small-caps, Mid-caps, Micro-caps, Financials, Transportation, Emerging Markets, New Highs list, Advance-Decline Line, the Value Line Index and S&Ps relative to its alternatives had all been pointing to stocks falling.
There was more data early last year suggesting to be completely out of stocks, and in bonds instead, than before any other crash in stock market history. We discussed this last week.
But even if you ignored all of those factors. And you just looked credit, you would have seen Treasuries significantly outperforming the rest of the bond market. Credit told you:
Click on Chart to Zoom in
Notice how that is not what’s happening today.
In fact, Treasury Bonds are catching absolutely no bid, even on days where the Dow and S&P500 are selling off.
Money is flowing into High Yield, faster than Treasuries, as represented by the new highs in the spread. And in case the duration police gets a hold of this one, the HYG/IEF spread looks exactly the same, and also warned of that same trouble a year ago.
That’s what this is all about.
And Credit is fine.
When things change, you’ll see it in the bond market.
Tell me why you aren’t.