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[Premium] My Notes on the Dow 30 Components

February 8, 2016

One of the most valuable tools that we have as market participants is in taking the sum of the parts to help come up with a final conclusion. While we all talk about what the Dow did yesterday or what it’s done year-to-date, it is easy to forget that there are 30 companies driving this popular U.S. stock market benchmark. By going through each of these 30 stocks, we can get a better feel for the market itself rather than just analyzing the performance of the index. To me, it’s the combination of the two that seems to be the best approach.

All of the 30 Dow Components have just been updated in the Chartbook, and here are my notes on the results:

Epic Failed Breakout In Electronic Arts

February 8, 2016

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @brunicharting

***

As momentum stocks breakdown, the Nasdaq 100 has begun to breakdown in a similar fashion on a relative basis.

Below is a daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 vs the S&P 500.

This ratio broke out to new highs late last year and spent a few months consolidating before ultimately resolving to the downside. This violent resolution lower confirmed a failed breakout as well as a bearish momentum divergence. Prices have since broken through the uptrend line from the summer of 2014 and look to be heading for a test of the uptrend from the June 2013 lows. From failed moves come fast moves, so I wouldn't be surprised if this ratio ultimately retests the breakout level near 2.0 which corresponds with the 61.8% retracement of the 2013-2016 rally.

Within this theme, Electronic Arts is one individual component that looks particularly vulnerable to the meltdown...

[Chart Of The Week] Why US Stocks Will Now Underperform The Rest of the World

February 5, 2016

One of the strongest and most impressive trends over the past 8 years has been the fierce and dramatic outperformance of the United States Stock Market over everyone else. Even when global equities have gotten hit hard, the U.S. has been referred to as the "Best house in a bad block". This is for good reason too. It has been. We've seen tremendous outperformance during both good and bad markets.

Momentum Stocks Are Broken. How Do We Profit From It?

February 5, 2016

Momentum is a word that gets thrown around a lot. I personally like to measure momentum using a 14-period relative strength index (see here), but different people have different definitions. Fine. For today, we'll argue that "momentum" stocks are those listed in the MSCI USA Momentum Index. Looking at these stocks as a group, I think they are going to continue to get destroyed going forward, particularly relative to the rest of the market.

First of all, forget this whole FANG thing. I don't know who made that up or why people like to limit it to just 4 stocks. I think it's stupid. They have nothing to do with one another and there should be others included in the list. In fact, in November I wrote a piece about how FANG stocks are this cycles Four Horseman (See here) and was further evidence at the time that made us very bearish U.S. Stocks heading into December and January. That obviously worked out very well.

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[Premium] Updated Notes on U.S. Sectors and Sub-sectors

February 4, 2016

The U.S. Stock market and most of its sectors continue to rally. As happy as we are to see this, and as much as we expect this to continue through February, these are only counter-trend rallies within larger structural declines. The good news is that counter-trend rallies in bear markets historically tend to be the most powerful kind of rallies. I think there is still room to the upside in many different sectors with very well-defined risk.

All of the charts have been updated on the Chartbook. Here are my notes for this week's sector review:

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[Premium] Here's Why I Want To Buy Twitter

February 4, 2016

As you guys know I started to turn bullish towards the stock market over the last couple of weeks for the first time since last October. Now, I want to make sure that we all understand that this is just a counter-trend rally within an ongoing bear market. Regardless, this is still a rally that I would like to participate in on the long side and every day

I am finding more and more opportunities to buy beaten down names, just for a trade, of course.

Here's Why I Want To Buy Yahoo!

February 3, 2016

Is there anyone left out there who wants to buy Yahoo? I don't see any.

Talk about terrible sentiment in a stock. Anecdotally that's obvious, but our data suggests the same thing. Also, does anyone have anything nice to say about Marissa Mayer? All of this really gets my attention and has me thinking. Can Yahoo seriously mean revert here? I think there's a good chance.

Here's the trade:

What Is The Value Line Index Telling Us? Part II

February 3, 2016

Back in November I pointed to the Value Line Geometric Index as one of many reasons why I was bearish the U.S. Stock Market. One of many, but definitely a good one. You see, when we look at cap-weighted indexes like the S&P500 or Nasdaq100, the components with the largest market capitalization have the heaviest weighting in the index. This allows relative strength in some of the largest companies to hide what is actually happening underneath the surface. It doesn't tell the entire story.

By looking at the Value Line Geometric Index, which consists of around 1700 names and assumes an equal dollar amount invested in each stock covered by Value Line, we get a much more broad based look at the U.S. Stock Market.

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[Premium] Risk/Reward Levels: S&P500, DJIA, R2K, QQQ, and More

February 3, 2016

There is much more to life that what the Dow did yesterday. Every week we go chart by chart looking at all of the major U.S. Stock Market Indexes. This analysis includes the S&P500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average, Dow Jones Utility Average, Nasdaq100, Russell 2000, Mid-Cap 400, Russell Micro-cap Index, etc.

All of these charts have been updated on both Weekly and Daily timeframes in the Chartbook and these are a few of my notes from this week's analysis including some updated risk vs reward levels:

Please note: this is multi-timeframe analysis looking both long-term and short-term. Defining who you are as an investor

, particularly your time horizon, is especially important at this point as, for the most part, the weekly charts and daily charts are telling different stories because they are on different time frames.

The Monster Breakout Underway In Dollar Swissy

January 30, 2016

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @brunicharting

***

Over the past five years or so, USD/CHF has been laying the foundation for a structural breakout, a structural breakout that looks to be in its early stages as 2016 begins. Before I get into the price action, I think it's important to understand the context that this move is occurring within.

From a sentiment perspective, my data suggests that commercial hedger positioning and public sentiment are both at neutral levels. Sentiment is only important at extremes, which I don't see currently, therefore this will be the extent to which I discuss it in this post. In terms of seasonality, my data suggests that over the past thirty years, January-March has been the worst three month period of the year for Swiss Franc performance. The combination of these factors