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[Premium] My List Of Technology Stocks We Want To Own Today

November 16, 2017

We're here to make money in the market aren't we? Some people want to gossip about tax cuts or who the next fed chair might be. I personally see no absolutely value in this sort of data. In fact, I believe it does more harm than good.

We want to turn the TV off, shut down the twitters and social medias and focus on the only thing that matters: price. The first thing we do is identify what the current market environment looks like. In this process we include stock market indexes in both the U.S. and all over the world, Commodities, Interest Rates and Currencies. Once we have laid out exactly what sort of environment we're in, then we can dig down to the individual sector level and ultimately to stock specific ideas. But all of this must be done after we've identified what sort of environment we're currently in.

Click here to see what the current environment is like today:

This is what I'm seeing out of Technology stocks specifically. While there are a few stocks with shorting potential, and some other stocks not...

[Chart of the Week] It's Not Just Junk Alone, It's the Credit Spreads

November 14, 2017

The noise machines are getting louder these days with Junk Bond Funds falling to levels not seen since March. You have the frustrated stock market bears data mining the heck out of everything trying to find something to justify their losing positions, or lack of winning ones in many cases. Remember it's not just about the money they've lost trying to short the stock market, it's the overwhelming amount of opportunity cost already incurred by simply not being long enough. It's double the frustration. I've noticed these bears turning to the bond market for guidance.

While the yield curve continues to fall, we've actually found that historically the stock market does the best when the yield curve is exactly where it is today (2s-10s specifically). But today I want to talk about the spreads between Junk Bonds and Government Bonds. When the stock market is showing plenty of evidence of risk appetite, we want to see the bond market confirming that as well, not diverging from it.

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[Premium] How We're Managing Risk In This Environment

November 9, 2017

As you guys know I've been pounding the table bullish of stocks for a long time. Not just U.S. stocks, but globally including both developed and emerging markets. This aggressively long approach is nothing new to us. Along the way, however, I've tried to point out some of the things we've been watching closely as a warning that a bullish thesis is most likely wrong. Again, it's not so much about how high we think a stock or sector or index can go, but at what point are we wrong? What's the risk? is the more most important question.

What many investors fail to understand is that we're not here to be right, we're only here to make money. There's a difference. We want to determine where we are wrong prior to even entering into a new investment. In other words, there needs to be somewhere between the price where we buy something and zero where we admit that our thesis was incorrect. To take this process even further, we want to imagine what the overall market environment would look like in the off chance that we are not correct. I say that kind of tongue-in-cheek because as many of you guys already know, I assume that I am wrong every single time and focus...

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[Premium] Important Stocks and Updated Risk vs Reward Setups

November 8, 2017

A wise Egyptian man once taught me, "If you trade the averages, you'll get average returns". The media likes to focus on what "The market" is doing today?". People want to know, "What did the market do today?". It's just how we are and how we think. But it's not the best approach, in my opinion. Far from it.

This is not a stock market, it is a market of stocks. There's a difference. It's funny how many people have tried shorting the major US averages over the past couple of years only to see sectors rotating and a majority of the components holding them up. While some sectors go through corrections, another one steps up and leads the averages higher. Sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market. This one has been no different.

Today I want to turn your attention to a group of stocks that I like to include in the Chartbook. These are a group of some of the most important names that do not fall within the category of the Dow Jones Industrial Average or Dow Jones Transportation Average. We're in the process of doing some updates on the site and will be adding several new workbooks...

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[Premium] Members-Only Conference Call Wednesday November 15th at 7PM ET

November 7, 2017

Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.

We've been bullish towards US and Global Stocks as they remain in strong uptrends on any sort of intermediate-term time horizon. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. We will go over a multi-timeframe approach on this conference call where we will start with the longer-term and then work our way down to more short-term to intermediate-term investing ideas. This will also include other assets like the US Dollar, Euro, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil and Interest Rates.

I'll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there!...

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[Premium] About That Rising US Dollar Environment

November 4, 2017

Since September we've been in the camp that the US Dollar is heading higher and potentially a lot higher. So if you want to be long the US Dollar, that is one way to take advantage of it. Short Euro has been another. But my favorite has been to be short the Gold Miners, particularly the more vulnerable Junior Gold Miners $GDXJ. So far this is working well. But I think it's worth reiterating that we, in general, want to approach the marketplace within the context of what we think will be a rising US Dollar environment.

Today we're taking a closer look at what's going on here:

 

It's Better To Kick Them While They're Down!

November 1, 2017

They say not to kick someone when they're down. But in the market it's the opposite. When they are down is exactly when you want to kick them. This is especially the case when they are down while other things are up. We don't want to be shorting the strongest stocks. We want to be shorting the underperformers where the holders are losers, they're wrong, stuck and need to get out, but can't. We are here, not only to make money on the upside of things, but also to benefit from the losses of others. When this pain starts to really set in, that's when we want to kick them, when they're down!

In this case I have 3 examples of people who are down. This is in the face of stocks ripping:

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[Premium] The Monthly Candlesticks Look Even Better Than Last Month

November 1, 2017

It is such an incredible blessing to have monthly candlestick charts of all the markets around the world at our disposal. It's essentially free data which is easily organized into a visual format to help us identify the direction of the underlying trends. It doesn't matter what your time horizon is, the monthly candlesticks offer a longer-term perspective from which to begin your analysis. From there is when you work your way down to more intermediate and shorter-term time horizons, but keeping the direction of the underlying primary trends in context.

I have a massive workbook of Monthly Candlestick charts that I review at the end of every month. I do not even open this workbook in the middle of the month. The fact that I only look at this workbook 12 times a year forces me to always come back to the primary trend, not allowing me to forget it. This exercise really helps me stay true and keeps me honest. It is easily one of the most valuable parts of my entire process.

These are some of the things that stood out to me the most:

 

 

 

 

Podcast Season 1 – Ep 10 – Gail Dudack, Technician & Founding Partner of Dudack Research Group

October 31, 2017


Gail Dudack brings a unique perspective to markets, particularly compared to other guests we've had on Technical Analysis Radio. Gail's career goes back to the 1970s. She has served the Chief US Investment Strategist at UBS and Pershing prior to that. She was a rotating panelist on ‘Wall Street Week With Louis Rukeyser’ for over 20 years. As a past President of the CMT Association, I think her experience and approach to markets is one we can all learn from. In this episode Gail talks about how she incorporates the news cycle into her sentiment work along with other more quantitative inputs. Early in her career...

You're Invited To My November Presentations: New York, Chicago & California

October 30, 2017

It's a busy time of the year for me. I've been given the opportunity to join a panel of amazing analysts at the 2nd annual Evidence-Based Investing Conference put on by my friends at Ritholtz Wealth Management. I will also be giving an hour long presentation at the Chicago Board of Trade on Technical Analysis and the Intermarket Relationships that I incorporate when making decisions about the current market environment. In a few weeks I will be presenting in San Leandro, CA at the Deaf Community Center and we'll have a sign language interpreter there to help us. This will be a lot of fun!

Here are all of the details. I hope you can join me for one or all of these!