Markets are a mess. They've been a mess. And this year is very different than last year.
Look at the Equally-weighted S&P500 and Nasdaq100.
While these are certainly good overall gauges for the health of the US Stock market, always, in this particular environment they are even more representative of what's going on out there.
Currency crisis or not, Tokyo is willing to defend the yen in the open market. It's proven this multiple times over the past three years, and today’s FOMC-related volatility will likely test its resolve.
Considering previous yen-buying interventions, the dollar, interest rates, and the dollar-yen pair could be headed lower in the coming months.
Before we dive into the yen, here's a quick update on the action in the euro and pound.
The euro retested its breakdown level from earlier this month, forming a bear flag:
A close below 1.06 completes the flag pattern and sets a rough downside objective of 1.0450.
I'm mindful that coming into this afternoon's Fed meeting lots can change following whatever is said after 2pm ET.
That said, there's a pretty compelling opportunity to sell some premium in the gold space, at strikes that are comfortably far away, increasing our odds of success.
I know I've already said it a lot over the past few months, but for those people in the back who may not be able to hear so well...
THIS YEAR IS NOT ANYTHING LIKE LAST YEAR.
The strategies that worked so well throughout 2023 are not the ones working this year.
Last year's leaders are some of the worst stocks in 2024.
The leaders in 2024, in many cases, were some of the worst sectors in 2023.
It's not bad or good. Better or worse. It's just different.
The better you get at adapting to the current environment, the fewer headaches you're going to have.
I'm 42 years old. I've been doing this for over 2 decades.
I have 3 kids.
Do you think I need more headaches at this point in my life? Or fewer?
And so that's why we've adapted our strategies to the current market, instead of trying to go to the beach in the winter, or wear a raincoat on a beautiful sunny day, like many investors like to do because they haven't bothered to check the weather.
My family and I recently embarked on a memorable 4-day journey to Redwoods National & State Parks in the breathtakingly rugged landscape of extreme Northern California.
Words alone cannot do justice to the majesty of this region, nor can mere photographs fully encapsulate its grandeur. To truly grasp its magnificence, one must stand amidst the towering coastal redwood trees, with the rugged shoreline of Northern California stretching out before them, enveloped in the sights, sounds, and scents of one of the most remarkable forests on Earth.
Even the gentle rain that occasionally graced our adventure served to enhance rather than dampen our experience, intensifying the assault on our senses in the most fulfilling manner imaginable.
As we spent hours traversing the labyrinthine trails, venturing deep into the heart of the woods, a recurring reminder echoed among us: "Don't forget to look up!"