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Semiconductors Rally on News of Nasdaq Correction

March 15, 2025

Semiconductors rallied this week with Nvidia ripping almost 8%.

This all comes as journalists on basic cable tell your parents that the Nasdaq is in a correction.

You see how this works?

Here's Nvidia finding support at the same key extension levels where the buyers stepped up in the Fall:

 

As I've said a whole bunch of times, if the Semiconductor Index completes this massive top relative to the S&P500, then chances are that the bull market is cancelled.

With Semi's rallying this week, despite the selling pressure in other areas of the market, that alpha put the Semiconductor Index back above all that support, invalidating any bearish implications that may have occurred earlier in March:

 

If Semi's do actually break, then I believe there is a bigger structural problem in the market, particularly in U.S. equities.

Global equities continue to act well, pointing more towards a rotation, rather than a full blown credit event....

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(Commodities Weekly) These Lines Dance Together 🕺📈

March 14, 2025

Copper futures have so many tailwinds working for it right now. We think it's ready to breakout to new all-time highs.

We've talked about the strong positive correlation it has with Chinese stocks. This remains the case. 

In addition, base and industrial metals have been ripping. Just look at the setup in Aluminum futures

We think it would make sense for Dr. Copper to lead its peers higher. This has already been playing out in precious metals.

The shiny yellow rock has been leading its peers higher, and now Silver futures are a stone's throw away from multi-decade highs. 

Gold futures hit 3,000 for the first time to make things even sweeter. Surpassing...

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International Hall of Famers (03-14-2025)

March 14, 2025

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list:

...
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Germany & China Hit New Highs

March 14, 2025

Contrary to popular belief, we're not just Americans. We're earthlings.

I think that gets forgotten, especially after the United States stock market outperformed practically everything else for so long.

You have a combination of home country bias and you have the recency bias layered on top of that.

So when U.S. Technology is an underperformer, as it has been since last summer, many investors with too much exposure in those areas are blinded by their losing, to see all the winning that's going on around them.

China, for example, just closed the week out at new 4-month highs. The CSI 300 is basically the S&P500 of China, and just closed at the highest levels since early November.

 

Meanwhile, you're seeing the German DAX this morning working on the highest weekly close in the country's history.

Whether it does or doesn't, the relative strength in Germany has been off the charts, despite any selling pressure you've seen in the U.S.

Keep in mind that outside of the American Indexes (S&P500, Dow & Nasdaq), I would put Germany right at the top of the most important markets list.

This is a very big deal, especially when...

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 3/14/25

March 14, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. No new positions today.
  2. Adjustment to XLP position.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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Selling in US Growth Continues

March 13, 2025

The selling in US Growth stocks continues. 

But why have European stocks and China done so well? 

They don't have any US Growth stocks in their indexes.

While the selling pressure in these stocks has accelerated recently, the underperformance has been there since last summer. We've been pointing out that High Beta never broke out relative to Low Volatility stocks while the major indexes were making new highs.

And now they're making new lows. Look at the underperformance from Tech along with the underperformance in High Beta:

 

And I'll be the first to tell you that it affects me too. Remember, that on a personal level, my wife and I have retirement accounts and we have 3 kids with college funds. I'm not immune to the selling in US Growth stocks.

I'm right in there with you guys, regardless of what I do for my day job.

Now, this is a great example of why we don't want to limit ourselves to a long only strategy in U.S. stocks.

I've already got plenty of that stuff. Too much, if you ask me. So I need to go out of my way to find additional sources of income and returns. 

This is strictly on a personal level,...

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[Options P2P] Daily Digest 3/13/25

March 13, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in XLB.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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A Mental Hack to Ride Out Portfolio Volatility

March 12, 2025

There’s no sugar-coating it—recent weeks have been rough in my account.

Call it a pullback, a correction, or a bear market—whatever label you prefer, the selloff in U.S. growth stocks hasn’t spared me. And let’s be honest: Watching account equity shrink isn’t fun. Not even a little.

But one thing that helps me stay grounded through market swings—both up and down—is tracking my Closed Trades Performance. It’s nothing fancy, just a simple spreadsheet with four columns:

Date Closed

Ticker

Net Gain/Loss

Running Total

That last column, “Running Total,” continuously adds up my net dollar gains and losses as I close trades.

The key benefit? It shifts my focus away from open equity swings in positions I haven’t closed yet. Any old-school futures trend follower will tell you: open profits aren’t yours until you close the trade. I learned this trick from my friend Peter Brandt, and it has been invaluable for my mindset.

Why This Helps My Trading Psychology

By focusing only on closed trades, two...

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[Options Premium] Good Buy or Goodbye

March 12, 2025

Today's trade is one of those setups where if the bulls can't stick this landing (making it a good buy), then it's goodbye and good night.

I'm betting on the latter. But being mindful that it could in fact be a good time to buy for those brave enough to step in, I'll be getting short with a defined risk put debit spread.