From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

What a day.

The indices rallied off of Powell’s speech, and the $SPX crossed the 200-day moving average. The SPX almost closed its gap at 4,083 back on Sept. 12.

We can trend higher into the 4,120 mark in time.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The S&P 500 and various measures of investor sentiment all remain below their August highs. We are getting neither the broad increase in optimism nor the improving price action needed to argue that the bounce off of the October lows is the beginning of a new bull market.   

Why It Matters: Price and sentiment often move in tandem. Optimism rebounded as stocks rallied off its October low but has struggled (like it the S&P 500 itself) to eclipse it’s summer highs. All three sentiment indicators have now ticked lower and we are seeing some evidence that the upside price momentum that accompanied the rally off of last month’s lows is starting to wane. Investors getting impatient with an unexpectedly persistent downtrend in prices could be reflected in sentiment indicators moving back toward their recent lows. Ultimately, time will tell how investors respond to their resolve being tested.   

In this week’s Sentiment Report we take a closer look at the latest options data and...

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday December 5th @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday evening:

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

Today we're turning our attention to key commodity currencies for insight into the US dollar's next directional move.

Check it out!

The largest insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by General Atlantic LP.

The hedge fund reported an additional purchase worth roughly $7 million in HireRight Holdings Corp $HRT.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

I think it could be a decision day for the indices, and we're either setting up for a ripper or a decent drop.

The $SPX needs to get above 3,972. If it does, we can see 4,000-plus.

Otherwise, we can see 3,922, then 3,860.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza 

While there have been some real winners during the recent rally, the run off the lows from this fall has also left many stocks behind.

Value stocks, cyclicals, and blue-chip names have prospered for the past two months, as groups like financials and industrials have been the latest beneficiaries of sector rotation. 

At the same time, mega-cap technology and the most-speculative growth areas of the market have continued to show relative weakness.

To be clear, it’s not like these stocks have been crashing lower while the rest of the market rallies. Of course, many have participated in the upside action.

But, on balance, the performance from growth stocks has been lackluster.

The disparity between the growth-heavy Nasdaq 100 and the value-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average perfectly illustrates what’s taken place:

The Dow has rallied almost 20% off its October low, retracing more than 62% of its year-to-date drawdown. Notice how it briefly reclaimed the August highs...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The 2020 V-shaped recovery has warped investors’ brains. 

But this is nothing more than recency bias. In reality, bottoms are a process, not an event. 

Don’t fall victim to what’s easy or comfortable. Instead, let’s focus on the facts.

Markets continue to send mixed signals, testing the resolve of even the most disciplined investor. Rather than fight the trend or trendless nature of the markets, I prefer to identify evidence that supports the next directional move.

And there’s one insightful chart atop my deck regarding the direction of the US dollar.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Overall, the market acted weak today.

The $SPX remained below its eight-day moving average, which is at 3,972. This index came close to touching support at 3,933.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The trend for the S&P 500 has now fallen for 34 weeks in a row. That is the longest sustained decline in the trend since the Financial Crisis ended over a decade ago.       

Why It Matters: Since 1950, the trend for the S&P 500 has been rising nearly 70% of the time. In the process the index has climbed from below 20 to above 4000. During a majority of this time (from the 50s through the 80s) extended periods in which the trend was rising were followed by extended periods in which the trend was falling. Downtrends started to get shorter & shorter in the 90s and outside of the bursting of the internet bubble  (2000-2002) and the Financial Crisis (2007-2009) that has remained the case. Even the COVID crash came and went so quickly that a down-trend hardly had time to emerge. Outside of the two episodes in the 00s, the current downtrend is proving to be the most persistent since the late 1980s. Investors that have been conditioned to quick downside...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Portfolio Update: As mentioned in yesterday's Market Notes, our tactical models are arguing for patience rather than aggressiveness with respect to equity exposure. That being said we want to stay in harmony with relative opportunities as they emerge. While not putting new money to work, we have tweaked the holdings in our Dynamic Tactical Opportunity Portfolio.