From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

After unexpectedly good headline and core CPI prints for November, the stocks were caught off guard by unexpectedly hawkish forecasts on both rates and inflation when the Fed released its Summary of Economic Projections following Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.

Why It Matters: The market is used to looking at core CPI as a way to filter out inflation noise. The problem is that core CPI was created with political motives, not for economic clarity. The median CPI is a better tool for discerning underlying trends. Central tendency measures of inflation (like the median CPI) were slower to climb post-COVID but now show inflationary pressure persisting. This helps explain why the Fed is likely to remain in inflation fighting mode longer than the market now expects. The Fed’s record here is not without blemish. Pre-COVID they were overly focused on the core indexes and missed the building of inflation pressure. In 2012, both the median and core CPI showed inflation near 2.3%. Core CPI was still there in the...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Today $SPY filled its gap from the Nov. 10 CPI print.

We're currently below the major moving averages.

This is the video recording of our December 16, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

At this point, it is almost becoming a cliche. But whenever the market sells off and Berkshire Hathaway takes a dip, it's almost becoming money in the bank to sell puts.

It's already worked for us numerous times this year. This won't work forever, of course, but until it stops working we should keep giving it a go.

With this in mind, let's get to work.

An All Star Options community member recently sent me an email asking about the Average True Range (ATR) indicator and whether or not it is helpful in ascertaining if options premiums are elevated or depressed in the underlying instrument. 

For a pretty thorough explanation of what ATR is, here’s a blurb I found on macroption.com:

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Bryant R. Riley, chairman and CEO of B. Riley Financial $RILY.

Riley reported a purchase of $2.5 million worth of RILY stock.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Another gap lower for the indices this morning. I'll be watching to see if the $SPX can hold 3,861 or so.

I was looking for a gap down. Now we'll see if we can get a bounce.

With the major indexes below overhead supply, you're seeing the choppy action.

There are stocks continuing to do very well, like Homebuilders for example. And there are some stocks really struggling, like U.S. Banks.

But in the aggregate, at the index level, you're seeing the grind.

It's the weekly bond market edition of What the FICC?

Today we're highlighting the breakout in bonds.

Check it out!

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market opened lower and continued on that path all day.

It was a tough day, and I tried to manage risk.

The $SPX hit some support at 3,887. The next level down is 3,867.