From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by David Goeddel, director of Tenaya Therapeutics Inc $TNYA.

Goeddel reported a purchase of 2,222,222 TNYA shares, equivalent to $10 million.

One of the things we've been monitoring closely over the past month is the new lows list.

I see very often how people love to just subtract random numbers from each other, mostly for the sake of subtracting.

There's really no reason for it.

For example, lately I'm sure you've noticed some traders and analysts taking the new 52-week high list and then arbitrarily subtracting the number of new 52-week lows from it.

lol for what?

Good morning,

Welcome to your daily crypto clarity

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

We didn't see any follow through on Tuesday's equity market sell-off. Bears need to continue to exert their dominance should that brief bout of selling become more meaningful over longer timeframes.

Bitcoin is steadily climbing, supported by strong spot ETF flows.

Chatter about the halvening is heating up. We're of the view this is mostly gossip and noise.

FEATURED CHART

We're always in a search for relative leaders, irrespective of the market environment. As Bitcoin has been progressing higher, Bitcoin's market-cap dominance has been rallying. This suggests that this recent market uptrend is largely a Bitcoin story; but there are still pockets of outperformance outside the major coins.

Helium $HNT is a great example. It's broken to new highs from this consolidation, and the uptrend is once again resuming higher.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

"Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop."

Bloomberg Businessweek plastered that message across its cover in October 2022 – a blaring yellow dollar sign front and center.

Those days are far behind us. The US dollar is trading well below its 2022 peak, and the mainstream media is expressing little concern about its rise.

Yet a series of fresh $DXY highs are causing many investors to fret.

I don’t blame them.

Check out the US Dollar Index completing a three-month bullish reversal:

The DXY has risen more than 4% so far this year and shows no signs of slowing. I can easily see it running back to 107. 

But it's also approaching a logical level to slam on the brakes. Or – heaven forbid – it could reverse course.

Check out the critical retracement level at approximately 105.50:

...

I believe the options market is underpricing the possibility of a downside surprise following earnings coming up in Hormel Foods $HRL.

So we're going place a long-shot bet that will pay gluttonously if we're right.

In today's Daily Digest, we'll review:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled SMH to April.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let's dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by JANA Partners Management LP.

The investment firm reported a purchase of $37 million  in Mercury Systems $MRCY.

The only real safe haven out there continues to be the US Dollar.

That's it.

When money flows into the Dollar, stocks are under pressure. You may not always see it at the index level, but you can certainly see it when you count and go one by one across the stock market.

The US Dollar bottomed on December 27th. That was also the day that the Advance-Decline line on the NYSE put in its top. It was also the day that the Russell2000 Small-cap Index peaked.

Here's the Dollar now making new 3-month highs:

Good morning,

Welcome to your daily crypto clarity

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Crypto markets continue stair stepping higher, as Bitcoin decisively moves into the 50,000s.

Stocks see selling pressure return, with the Russell 2000 Small-Cap index $IWM recording its worst single day performance since the bear market low in June 2022.

Bitcoin shows a surprising amount of relative strength as risk markets weakened in the backdrop of strong spot ETF flows.

FEATURED CHART

In the lead-up to the Bitcoin spot ETF, traditional finance managers were expressing their confidence in the futures market to take advantage of the Bitcoin repricing rally. But as attention turns to a Ethereum spot ETF, it appears that investors aren't showing much conviction in Ethereum, with CME open interest declining YTD.

We could either be early in the process of investors repricing Ethereum to the possibility of a Ethereum spot ETF, or investors may simply have their crypto desires satiated with Bitcoin.

In Monday’s letter, we made the case that the market has successfully resolved higher from the post-ETF consolidation. This came after a number of data sets suggested we had seen a reset in the consensus bullish sentiment and positioning in the lead-up to the ETF approval. With the market pressing higher, we want to position ourselves to take advantage of this reaccelerating trend.

In today's Daily Digest, we'll review:

1. New position in ITB.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. An exit in TLT.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let's dig in!