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Was That It? Or Eye Of The Storm?

March 7, 2020

This is the big question going through the minds of market participants all over the world right now. What's next? Have we seen the worst of it? Or is this just the eye of the storm?

I remember as a kid I was 10 years old when a huge storm hit Miami. Hurricane Andrew was a massive category 5 storm that was supposed to hit Orlando but in the middle of the night changed directions and decided to make a beeline towards my house. So the eye of the storm actually went over our heads:

[Options] Keep it Clean!

March 6, 2020

Things are whippy out there. And volatility is elevated to levels we haven't seen in quite a while. This is no time to be a hero. This is the time to focus on edges and putting them to your advantage.

I know it's sexy to be a buyer of calls if you want to be the hero bottom caller. Similarly, it's equally sexy to be a holder of long puts into a market crash. But this is not the time to be initiating new long calls or puts positions. The premiums you'd pay are so high right now that you could totally nail the direction, but you'd be swimming upstream against an eventual mean-version in volatility pricing.

But this does not mean we pick up our ball and go home. We options traders have options!

In this environment, we're looking for plays where we are net sellers of premium. With premiums this juicy, it would be irresponsible to do anything else.

The Best Trade May Be No Trade In Yes Bank

March 6, 2020

Yes Bank is in the news again and following an 83% intraday move to the downside, market participants are wondering what's next?

In this post, we'll outline why this week's move is business as usual for the stock, what we'd do with it now, and why the best trade in Yes Bank may be to avoid it altogether.

The Good & Bad Of India's Pharma Sector

March 6, 2020

The current market environment remains choppy, so we want to revisit a sector that's showing relative strength, Pharma.

In November we pointed to the improving prospects of the Nifty Pharma Index and its components, following up with additional trades in January.

Today, we want to revisit the sector to see what's changed and what stocks we want to be buying and selling.

First, let's start with the Nifty Pharma vs Nifty 500 ratio chart that continues to turn higher after meeting our downside objective late last year. This continues to suggest further outperformance from the Nifty Pharma sector relative to the broader market.

Click on chart to enlarge view. 

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[Premium] The S&P 500's Cleanest Setups Right Now

March 4, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

If you're reading this it's probably because you've read our Table of the Week where we identified roughly 100 of the strongest stocks in the S&P 500. After digging into the charts of all these stocks, we came up with a handful of setups that we believe are currently offering the best reward/risk. Here they are, in no particular order.

[Table of The Week] Strongest Stocks In The S&P

March 4, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We want to be buying stocks that are in the strongest uptrends. One way we identify them is by looking at momentum which we use the 14-day RSI for. The strongest uptrends do not get oversold, or fall to RSI levels below 30. In fact, the strongest uptrends often stay above the 40-50 level and constantly print overbought readings above 70.

The S&P 500 registered an extreme oversold reading below 20 during the violent correction that began in late February. Here's a look.

Expect More Chop, But Be Prepared To Buy Stocks

March 4, 2020

In this post, we're going to recap our views from the last two months, discuss our current market view, and outline what conditions need to present themselves for us to be aggressively buying stocks.

First, let's recap our posts from the last few months that outlined why we were taking a more defensive approach towards stocks.