It’s an important question, especially for those of us who maintain exposure to bonds.
And for those of us who don’t, it’s always good to know what’s going on in the fixed income space, as it’s often very valuable information.
Frankly, as investors, it’s irresponsible and negligent to not know what’s going on in this asset class.
It’s the largest market in the world!
And right now we’re seeing evidence of a shift in leadership toward High Yield Bonds $HYG.
We know it’s in our best interest to pay attention to this development so let’s look at a couple charts that suggest bond investors are reaching further out on the risk curve for a higher yield.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge
Whether more stocks are going up or down these days simply depends on where you look. Some advance-decline lines are moving higher, but others are moving lower.
Weakness and divergences in these indicators are more often than not resolved over time, but the longer they persist the more concerning they become.
This hasn’t been an issue for most of the major averages, as the S&P 500 and other large-cap indexes keep making new highs with confirmation from their A/D lines.
Yet when we look beneath the surface, and particularly down the cap scale, we're seeing a different story. Ultimately, some stocks are going up, but most are not.
You’ve probably heard already, but the current environment is an absolute mess as the weight of the evidence continues to hang in the balance. In today’s post, we’ll discuss some charts that do a great job illustrating all the mixed signals out there right now.
But as always, we need to remain objective in our approach and look for cracks in our thesis.
It's one of many reasons why we always play devil's advocate; that is, collating a list of data points that go against our thesis and would subsequently make us change our perspective.
Let's not forget, flipping our approach as new evidence comes in is not only an advantage, but in public markets, it's a necessity.
So with that said, what if this isn't as clean a breakout as we initially intended?
Seasonality of markets is something I've done a lot of work on throughout my career. As humans who are part of society, we behave differently depending on the seasons. We dress differently, we hang out with different people, we go to different places, all according to a calendar.
If you think those behavior changes don't impact our decision making, then I don't think you understand humans. And if you think those behaviors and decisions don't affect how we participate in markets, then I think you're just being naïve.
I encourage you to pick up a copy of the annual Stock Traders Almanac published by my pal Jeff Hirsch.
Yesterday after the close, I had a great chat with Ed Clissold, the Chief U.S. Strategist at Ned Davis Research. The podcast episode will be up shortly, so keep an eye out for it. You can subscribe to my Technical Analysis Radio Podcast here, if you haven't already.
Key Takeaway: It appears the bulls are preparing to pack it up and call it a day. Dark clouds are starting to roll in, as the slow deterioration beneath the surface has taken its toll. New highs and a relentless rally in the major indexes paint an alternate reality versus the experience of the average stock--a reality that hasn’t quite sparked the interest of the bears so much as it’s exhausted the bulls. Active investment managers continue to taper their exposure, and advisory services have turned their least bullish in more than a year. A storm is brewing in the form of a re-set in sentiment. As it inches closer, the question becomes more of “when” and “how,” not “if.”
This week I had a chance to chat with my old pal Phil Pearlman, who's the Chief Behavioral Officer at Osprey Funds.
Phil and I have been talking markets regularly for over a decade, both behind the scenes and on YouTube.
Never in our wildest dreams did we think we would be here today discussing on-chain analysis of crypto currencies. But here we are!
In today's video we discuss two of my favorite gauges of sentiment, the exchange balances and the dormancy rates. We also touch on the current breadth in crypto markets as the percentage of coins breaking out to new 30 day highs continues to expand.
Crypto just once again pierced a whopping $2T market cap.
It seems now more than ever that the entire space is heating up to unseen levels.
The entire asset class has ballooned to nearly 10,000 coins and tokens, all with their own individual whitepapers, goals, and communities.
Activity on the blockchain has never been higher, smart contracts and DeFi are in full swing, and now the world is beginning to pick up what NFTs are all about.
But it wasn't always like this.
All of this activity flourishing before our very own eyes stands on the shoulders of failed projects, countless crashes, and the destruction of wealth in now dead tokens.
If this asset class has taught us anything, it's to manage your damn risk.
It doesn't matter how unique the whitepaper is or the fundamental use case of the token if the market's truly coming off.
It was hilarious to see everyone talk about the fundamentals of their altcoins when things were great earlier in the year, but tried becoming technicians on the way down.
The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.
The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.
