From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Did you see the candlestick in the Mexican peso last Friday?

It was all wick!

The way I learned it, you want to trade in the opposite direction of blow-offs like this. 

That means betting on a stronger peso and an end to the stock market correction.

Check out the XXXL lower shadow in the Mexican peso futures (denominated in USD):

Last Friday’s intraday swing spanned six percent and registered the highest single-day ATR reading since March 2020.

Despite the earth-shattering volatility, the bulls prevailed. That’s the critical lesson from last week’s action: The bulls immediately repaired the damage. 

That trend will likely continue in the coming weeks and months. If it does, US stocks, especially the materials sector, will resume their uptrend.

Check out the historically positive correlation between the Mexican peso and the Materials Sector ETF $XLB:

...

The hangover from the massive ramp in NVIDIA $NVDA is shown pretty clearly in the current premiums in out-of-the-money options.

The big moves -- in both directions -- are still fresh memories for all participants in this stock over the past several months.

This sets up an opportunity to put on a high-probability bet that the range in $NVDA will consolidate a bit here.

In today's Daily Digest, we'll review:

1. New position in GLD.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Exited ITB and XRT.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let's dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Atlas Venture Opportunity Fund.

The hedge fund reported the acquisition of 17,857 shares of Korro Bio Inc $KRRO, equivalent to roughly $1 million.

Stock prices don't move based on "fundamentals".

Prices move based on positioning.

When investors are primarily on one side of a market, the pendulum swings to the other extreme.

One of my heroes John Roque said it best, "We're not in a reversion TO the mean business, we're in a reversion BEYOND the mean business".

In other words, from extremes in positioning, the market doesn't just go back to the average positioning. It tends to continue towards the other extreme.

This is the situation we currently find ourselves in as investors.

The Bitcoin halving has come and gone, and my perspective on it remains unchanged: it was a non-event. Contrary to expectations based on previous cycles, this halving had little impact on Bitcoin's trajectory, which appears more influenced by broader market liquidity conditions. While some may argue for its significance, any effect on the market seems to stem mainly from sentiment rather than fundamental changes in supply or demand.

One sentiment dynamic worth noting is the classic pattern of "buying the rumor, selling the news." However, in the case of the halving, we've witnessed a reversal of this trend. Investors preemptively adjusted their positions leading up to the event, particularly in Bitcoin mining stocks, anticipating the halving's impact on revenues. Surprisingly, instead of selling off after the halving, there has been a notable increase in buying activity, reflecting a shift in sentiment.

This behavior aligns with a fundamental aspect of human psychology: the aversion to uncertainty. Similarly, investors prefer to act when outcomes seem more predictable, hence the recent surge in buying activity post-halving.

Looking specifically at Bitcoin...

This is one of the biggest questions we want to ask ourselves right now.

How many ounces of Silver does it take to buy just 1oz of Gold?

The answer is that it's currently too many.

Here is the Ratio between Gold and Silver, overlaid with a 200-week moving average just to smooth out the data better.

These cookies were made by a member of my Trader’s Meetup group. She brought them to our gathering last night and made plenty to share with everyone.

Where else can one bring cookies with Japanese candlesticks and receive a rousing ovation from all in attendance?

This is how you know you’re with your people.

Eventually, our spouses get tired of hearing about our “failed breakouts” and “doji reversals.” Our non-trading friends look sideways at us for...

In today's Daily Digest, we'll review:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled XLB position into June.
3. Exited GLD campaign.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let's dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The most significant insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by Cormorant Asset Management LP.

The hedge fund reported a purchase of $10.4 million in EyePoint Pharmaceuticals Inc $EYPT.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list now, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in order to...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Investors are dropping gold and silver like they’re hot.

But don’t let the sellers push you toward the exit.

It might look ugly, but a corrective period following gold’s vertical rally to our initial target sounds about right.

Plus, three of our current long positions – Harmony $HMY, Wheaton $WPM, and Kinross $KGC – posted new 52-week highs Thursday. 

I expect the new highs list to expand as gold and silver work through overhead supply in the coming months.

Instead of sweating today’s selling pressure, I’m placing orders to buy the following two mining stocks on a breakout…