For long time readers of All Star Charts, you guys pretty much know my deal. I put in more work that most people and I include markets in my studies that the majority of investors choose to ignore. In order to take a weight-of-the-evidence approach to the market, I need to, in fact, weigh all of the evidence. Therefore, I have to look at every single stock market in the world on both short-term and long-term time frames.

This Thursday March 24th, I will be presenting at an all day live webinar presented by Investor Inspiration. I will be joining six additional speakers and my time slot begins at 1:45PM ET.

During my session, we will be discussing some of the basic technical analysis principles that I incorporate in my work every day. These include Supply & Demand analysis, Momentum, Fibonacci, Correlations and how to use Moving Averages for trend identification. 

We’ve come a long way in the last 3 months.

Back in November of last year, I decided to start writing an “Open Letter About the Current Market Environment” and posting it on my blog. This was just a summary of what I call my “homework” (flipping through hundreds of charts every day to find the best risk/reward setups). I was already doing the work so I thought why not share it with my followers and see if it resonated with them.

As you know, I'm a firm believer in listening to the markets when they speak. And in the case of my open letter, the "market" definitely spoke. My inbox was literally flooded with emails thanking me for the insightful trades included in my letters and asking when the next one would be posted. At that moment, I knew I was on to something BIG. 

It's been awfully lonely being a China bull over the past couple of months. All I keep hearing is how China is falling apart and slowing and all sorts of negative sentiment towards the country and its stock market. In the real world, however, where we are forced to live and where only price pays, we've seen emerging markets dominating for 2 months and I think the squeeze higher we've seen in China is just getting started.

First, here is a chart of the Shanghai Composite breaking below last August's lows to start the new year. After a couple of months down there, we are now back above those former lows confirming a failed breakdown. I think this is the catalyst to continue to send Chinese stocks soaring:

U.S. Treasury Bonds have treated us very well this year. Coming into January we wanted to buy a breakout above $122-123 in the U.S. Treasury Bond ETF $TLT with a target above $133. This upside target was achieved last month as interest rates simultaneously hit our downside target, 1.65% in the 10-year yield. Since then, we've wanted to back off and let new data dictate our next move. Over the past month, we've seen rates bounce back up towards 2.0% and the $TLT has fallen back down towards $128.

The question now becomes: Do we get back in on the long side? Or is there more consolidation or price correction needed first?

This is a forgotten space. Since early 2014, the last time Ags had any sort of meaningful rally, we've just seen a deterioration of prices. Whether you're looking at Corn, or Coffee, or Soybeans, the Ags have gotten destroyed. We've see massive rallies this year out of some of the other commodities like in Energy and Metals. Now I think it's time for the Ags to participate in this Commodities Rally.

One of the best ways to be positioned over the past 2 months has been to be in Emerging Markets, not in U.S. Stocks. I've been pounding the table on this trade since January and it has really worked out in our favor. The big question today is: Now What? Does this thing keep going, or does the longer-term trend of the U.S. outperforming Emerging Markets resume in the second quarter?

The noise surrounding the Federal Reserve is some of the silliest and biggest wastes of time in all of the financial industry. The media loves to talk about it, because well, they get paid to talk, not to help you make money in the market. Discussing the Japanese Yen for hours on end isn't sexy. That doesn't drive traffic or boost ratings. But if you're here to try and make money in the market, it's actually the most important thing to be watching here.

Long-time readers and Members of All Star Charts know how much I've been pounding the table about watching the Yen to gain insight on the direction of the U.S. Stock Market. Notice how last month when Yen put in its top (USD/JPY bottom), the S&P500 made its low on the very same day. The Nasdaq Composite also put in its low that day, so did the Russell2000, so did the Mid-cap 400, so did the Russell Micro-cap Index, so did the NYSE Composite. I can keep going, but I think you get the point.

This has been a pretty simple one coming into 2016. Not all charts are as clean as this, so it's hard for me to argue against selling Growth and buying Value. The longer-term trend has been to buy Growth stocks and sell Value stocks since 2006. This strategy has worked well, except maybe during 2012, but even that correction came within the context of a much larger bull market in Growth vs Value stocks.

Today we are looking at a ratio of the Russell 1000 Growth Index Fund vs the Russell 1000 Value Index Fund (IWF / IWD). This is a weekly line chart going back to the low in 2006 showing prices trending higher between 2 converging uptrend lines:

Cotton has been in a horrific bear market for 5 years. When you talk about some of the worst places to be on planet earth over the past half-decade, Cotton has to be near the top of the list. After peaking near 220 in early 2011, the price of Cotton has collapsed recently hitting a low under 55.