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It's Time To Re-Short Stocks

April 16, 2020

In yesterday's Chart Summit, we presented our view on the major asset classes around the globe and noted what we need to see before getting bullish Equities again. (You can watch the full videos of all the presenters for free.)

Unfortunately, current conditions suggest continued volatility so we're looking for short setups to take advantage of it in the coming days/weeks.

Let's take a look at our broader thesis and what stocks and indexes we're shorting to express it in the market.

Since late March we've been watching to see how the counter-trend rally in stocks would develop...and while a few stocks under the surface continue to rally, the Nifty 50 remains stuck below its 2015-2016 highs and most stocks remain in downtrends.

[Chart Of The Week] A Treasure(y) Trove Of Information

April 15, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We are always looking at intermarket signals and ratio charts for insight into various asset classes. We've recently written plenty about intermarket relationships that signal risk-appetite, or lack thereof, for stocks as well as others to get a read on yields.

Today's Chart of the Day, High Yield Bonds (HYG) vs Short-Term Treasuries (IEI), is one of our favorite risk-appetite ratios.

Credit Market investors favor High Yield Bonds over Treasury Bonds during the "good times" - periods of strong economic growth, rising rates, etc. On the other hand, we know treasuries are a safe-have asset and outperform in environments where investors are uncertain and want a place to park their capital until the smoke clears.

I Googled This Trade Idea

April 15, 2020

Say what you will about stock market action since the equities bottom was put in on March 23rd, but either way you can't not be impressed.

Do we go higher from here?

I don't know the answer (hint: neither do you), but I do know that if we do, we're going to be continually led by the leaders in this bounce so far. And one of those leaders is the stock who's company everyone uses -- in some way -- whether you realize it or not: Google.

Mystery Chart (04-14-2020)

April 14, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!

We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.

You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

AMD Breaking Out Of A 20-year Base?

April 14, 2020

Did you notice how shares of Advanced Micro Devices are trying to finally break out of this 20-year base?

This is a long-term candlestick chart I brought up on our Monthly Conference Call last night.  I used a line chart just to show how clean it is.

The "Multi-decade breakout" thesis is only valid if we're above those 2000 highs. If not, then by definition, it's not a breakout.

That level for me is $44:

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Taking a Shine to Silver

April 13, 2020

Options premiums are still pretty elevated across the landscape and the default mode for me when looking for trades to put on is still to prefer selling premium to express any directional bets.

However, JC put some bullish metals ideas in my head last week that are starting to look interesting to me. And there's one in particular that warrants a shot with a debit spread -- where we can use the prevalence of still high options premiums to help us lower our cost of participation in a directional bet.

 

 

 

 

Buy The Weakest Or The Strongest?

April 13, 2020

A question we're getting a lot these days is when the market ultimately does bottom, do we want to be buying the stocks that have been hit the most or the ones that have held up the best during the market's fall?

As with most things in markets and in life, the answer is it depends. In this post, we'll explain why.

Chats w/ Friends: Gold, Silver & Gold Miners

April 12, 2020

We're all stuck at home these days and Zoom is how we get to hang out with friends and family.

This week I was chatting with my pal Jeremy over in Laguna Beach about Gold, Silver and Gold Mining Stocks.

I think there are some good opportunities in the space and I think there are areas in which to be patient.

Here's a short video of our discussion:

All Star Charts Premium

Weekly Performance Recap (04-09-2020)

April 11, 2020

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Every weekend we publish simple performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with brief commentary on each.

As this is something we do internally on a daily basis, we believe sharing it with clients will add value and help them better understand our top-down approach. We use these tables to provide insight into both relative strength and market internals.

This week we want to highlight our US Equity Index and Factor tables, as they are both showing near-term reversions in some of the most robust long-term intermarket trends.

Click on table to enlarge view.