This is the big question going through the minds of market participants all over the world right now. What's next? Have we seen the worst of it? Or is this just the eye of the storm?
I remember as a kid I was 10 years old when a huge storm hit Miami. Hurricane Andrew was a massive category 5 storm that was supposed to hit Orlando but in the middle of the night changed directions and decided to make a beeline towards my house. So the eye of the storm actually went over our heads:
Things are whippy out there. And volatility is elevated to levels we haven't seen in quite a while. This is no time to be a hero. This is the time to focus on edges and putting them to your advantage.
I know it's sexy to be a buyer of calls if you want to be the hero bottom caller. Similarly, it's equally sexy to be a holder of long puts into a market crash. But this is not the time to be initiating new long calls or puts positions. The premiums you'd pay are so high right now that you could totally nail the direction, but you'd be swimming upstream against an eventual mean-version in volatility pricing.
But this does not mean we pick up our ball and go home. We options traders have options!
In this environment, we're looking for plays where we are net sellers of premium. With premiums this juicy, it would be irresponsible to do anything else.
Yes Bank is in the news again and following an 83% intraday move to the downside, market participants are wondering what's next?
In this post, we'll outline why this week's move is business as usual for the stock, what we'd do with it now, and why the best trade in Yes Bank may be to avoid it altogether.
Today, we want to revisit the sector to see what's changed and what stocks we want to be buying and selling.
First, let's start with the Nifty Pharma vs Nifty 500 ratio chart that continues to turn higher after meeting our downside objective late last year. This continues to suggest further outperformance from the Nifty Pharma sector relative to the broader market.
My apologies if this one was a bit of a layup, but that was the point. You were all buyers and so are we. Since we're all in agreement let’s dive right in and talk about why we’re bullish on this chart but more importantly, why it matters.
If you're reading this it's probably because you've read our Table of the Week where we identified roughly 100 of the strongest stocks in the S&P 500. After digging into the charts of all these stocks, we came up with a handful of setups that we believe are currently offering the best reward/risk. Here they are, in no particular order.
We want to be buying stocks that are in the strongest uptrends. One way we identify them is by looking at momentum which we use the 14-day RSI for. The strongest uptrends do not get oversold, or fall to RSI levels below 30. In fact, the strongest uptrends often stay above the 40-50 level and constantly print overbought readings above 70.
The S&P 500 registered an extreme oversold reading below 20 during the violent correction that began in late February. Here's a look.
The boys were out with a bullish piece on China stocks, citing oversold conditions. As JC said: "If the world isn’t ending after all, this could be an interesting place to look for huge winners."
So I've got my eye on a big name that has held up pretty well, all things considered.
With that said, we were a bit cautious about buying the potential breakouts in USD/INR and JPY/INR until we got confirmation, but we've seen some solid follow-through over the last two days.
This post will outline how to approach getting involved in the trade if you're not already.
Today we wrote a post updating our market view, which is that we expect further chop but are looking to put cash to work slowly on the long side. In that post we outlined what we'd need to see to get aggressively long, so please check it out.
This post is going to outline several stocks that are presenting attractive reward/risk scenarios at current levels, so if you need long exposure this is where we want to be.
In this post, we're going to recap our views from the last two months, discuss our current market view, and outline what conditions need to present themselves for us to be aggressively buying stocks.
First, let's recap our posts from the last few months that outlined why we were taking a more defensive approach towards stocks.